[1. Call to order]
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>> GOOD AFTERNOON AND WELCOME TO THE MARCH 6TH, STUDY SESSION FOR THE LAKE WASHINGTON SCHOOL DISTRICT.
PLEASE LET THE RECORD REFLECT THAT ALL BOARD MEMBERS ARE PRESENT AND OUR STUDENT REP EVAN KURTZ AND THAT IS IT.
[1. Enrollment Projections and Update on 2022 Construction Levy Projects]
WITH THAT WE HAVE ONE ITEM ON THE AGENDA THIS EVENING AND IT IS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND AN UPDATE ON THE 2022 CONSTRUCTION PROJECT LEVY. WITH THAT I WILL SEND IT OVER TODR. HOLMAN. >> GOOD EVENING OR GOOD AFTERNOON. EXCITED TO HAVE THIS CONVERSATION WITH THE BOARD AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND THEN LOOK AT OUR 2022 CONSTRUCTION LEVY PROJECTS AND SOME CONSIDERATIONS THAT YOU'RE AWARE WE ARE GOING TO DISCUSS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT WE HAVE BEN -- I BELIEVE YOUR LAST NAME IS MALONEY.
IS THAT CORRECT? WE MET WITH BEN LAST WEEK TO PREVIEW HIS PRESENTATION THIS EVENING TO MAKE SURE THAT HE IS HIGHLIGHTING THE ELEMENTS THAT WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE COVER TONIGHT. AND THEN WE ARE GOING TO GO INTO PRESENTATION AROUND THE 2022 CONSTRUCTION LEVY AND SEEK SOME FEEDBACK FROM THE BOARD AS OUR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS HAS CHANGED. WITH THAT, BEN, I'M GONNA HAND IT OVER TO YOU. WE MAY NEED TO MODIFY THE VOLUME ON THIS END, SO IF YOU WANT TO JUST TEST YOUR MICROPHONE REAL QUICK. WE MAY NEED TO TURN DOWN THE OVERALL VOLUME A BIT, BUT LET'S TRY THAT.
>> EXCELLENT. >> CAN YOU HEAR ME OKAY?
>> YES. WE WILL ADJUST ON THIS END AND YOU SHARE YOUR PRESENTATION AND WE'LL GO FROM THERE.
WELL, I WILL GO AHEAD AND GET STARTED.
LIKE WAS MENTIONED, WE'LL PROBABLY FLY THROUGH A COUPLE OF THESE SLIDES, BUT STAY ON A COUPLE OF THE MORE IMPORTANT ONES. MY NAME IS BENJAMIN MALONEY.
I WORK HERE AT FLOW ANALYTICS. I RAN A FORECAST THIS YEAR AND TWO YEARS PRIOR FOR THIS DISTRICT.
I MIGHT HAVE MET SOME OF YOU ALREADY.
OUR ENROLLMENT FORECASTING PROCESS IS TWO AND MAYBE THREE-ISH COMPONENTS. STUDENT ENROLLMENT ASSESSMENT WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT THE HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT OVER THE LAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS OR SO. COUPLE THAT WITH GREAT PROGRESSION AND RATIOS AND BIRTH FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS OF PRIOR BIRTH AND KINDERGARTEN AND KINDERGARTEN TRENDS AND THEN ASSOCIATED WITH BIRTHS AND THE LAND USE DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES WHERE WE ARE TALKING TO COUNTY MUNICIPAL PLANNERS IN THE DISTRICT AND TRYING TO GET AN IDEA HOW MUCH RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IS TAKING PLACE AND WHERE AND WHAT KIND AND SUCH.
EVENTUALLY ALL OF THIS COMES TOGETHER TO CREATE OUR STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECAST. WE ARE GONNA TOUCH ON MOST OF THESE AS WE GO THROUGH THE PROCESS.
REAL QUICK, OUR DISTRICT OVERVIEW, NOT TOO MUCH TO MENTION HERE, BUT IF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY THERE, IT CAN START THROWING OFF THE FORECAST AND GET TO SOME WEIRD FLUX -- FLUCTUATIONS HERE AND THERE.
WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING THIS FORECAST FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS NOW. HOPEFULLY ALL OF OUR BOUNDARIES ARE NICE AND NORMAL LOOKING. STUDENT DENSITY, ALL I HAVE TO SAY IS ANYTHING IN THE DARKER COLORS OR THE DARK BLUES, THE PURPLE COLORS ARE CONCENTRATIONS OF STUDENTS AT AND WHEREVER THERE IS A LIGHTER GREEN AND ALMOST A YELLOW, THAT'S WHERE MORE SPARSE CONCENTRATIONS OF STUDENTS.
SO MORE IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST SIDE AND DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SIDE AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE.
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT, THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS OF ENROLLMENT FROM 17, 18, 22, 23. NOTE AT THE BOTTOM IT DOES EXCLUDE WANECK IS NOT INCLUDED. ANYTHING IN THE ORANGE REPRESENTS A HIGH POINT ENROLLMENT AND APEX ENROLLMENT IN THAT GRADE AND YEAR. LOOKING AT THIRD GRADE, 1920 WITH 2,660 STUDENTS REPRESENTED AN APEX IN ENROLLMENT.
THE HIGH POINT WILL BE AN ANALYSIS PERIOD.
THE BLY COLORING IS THE OPPOSITE OF THAT.
IT IS A LOW POINT IN ENROLLMENT. MOST OF THAT IN K-F -- K-5.
A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS TO MENTION BEFORE WE MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE IS THE COLORATION HERE IS HIGHLIGHTING THE LARGER -- OR THE SMALLER COHORTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
THEY TYPICALLY LIKE TO REMAIN LARGE OR SMALL.
THERE WILL BE FLUX -- FLUCTUATIONS FROM YEAR TO YEAR.
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BUT THE CLASS IN 1920 WITH 2,543 STUDENTS, EVEN THOUGH IT CHANGES IN SEVENTH GRADE TO 2,47, STILL REMAINS -- 2,473, IT STILL REMAINS THE LARGEST ONE. ONE THING TO MINUTES -- MENTION IS K-5 CLASS IN 22 AND 23, ALL REPRESENTING MOSTLY, GENERALLY THE LOW POINT IN ENROLLMENT THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-YEAR TIME ORSIX-YEAR TIME SPAN. >> THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THIS SERIES OF COHORTS MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM ONE GRADE TO THE NEXT. AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ARE REPRESENTING THE HIGH POINT IN ENROLLMENT AS THEY ARE OUT OF THE DISTRICT IN THE NEXT FOUR OR FIVE YEARS.
IT WILL HAVE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE DISTRICT-WIDE ENROLLMENT IF EVERYTHING WERE HELD STEADY. GRADE PROGRESSION RATIOS, SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR WITH THEM, IT IS THE RATIO OF STUDENTS MOVING FROM ONE GRADE TO THE NEXT. KIPPEDDER GARDEN IN -- KINDERGARTEN IN ONE YEAR AND FIRST THE SECOND AND FIRST ONE YEAR AND SECOND TO THE NEXT AND SO ON AND SO FORTH.
ANYTHING ABOVE 1.0 MEANS THE COHORT HAS GAINED IN SIZE.
ANYTHING BELOW 1.0 MEANS THE COHORT HAS LOST STUDENTS AS IT MOVES FROM ONE GRADE TO THE NEXT.
AS WE LOOK AT THE K-1 RATIO FROM KINDERGARTEN TO FIRST GRADE AND IN 17-18 IT MEANS THE COHORT FROM KIPPEDDER GARDEN 16 AND 17 GAINED 8% MORE STUDENTS WHEREAS SAY SOMETHING LIKE THE 8TH AND 9TH GRADE, .98 LOST 2% STUDENTS.
IT MOVED FROM 8TH GRADE IN 16 TO 17 TO 9TH GRADE IN 17, 18 AND SO ON AND SO FORTH. GRADE PROGRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 1.0 EXCLUDING 10TH AND 11TH AND 11TH AND 12TH.
2021 OUR COVID YEAR WE SAW BIG REDUCTIONS IN ENROLL -- IN ENROLLMENT HAPPENING AND A COUPLE OF THEM HELD STEADY.
21 AND 22, A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP IN A FEW OF THE PROGRESSION RATIOS DROPS HERE AND THERE. AND THEN 22 AND 23 A LITTLE MORE OF A RESURGENCE. OUR FORECAST IN THE FAR RIGHT SIDE IS WHAT WE USE TO APPLY TO THE DISTRICT-WIDE FORECAST.
SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE FOURTH AND FIFTH AND LOOKING AT HOLDING STEADY OR GAINING STUDENTS.
AND THEN FIFTH AND 6TH AND .99 FOR THE MOST PART.
AND 10TH AND 11TH ARE DIFFERENT AND REFLECTING THE FULL-TIME RUNNING START STUDENTS BEING REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
OUR LAND USE DEVELOPMENT, ANYTHING YOU SEE HERE IN THE BLUE OR THE BLUE CIRCLES OR THE SINGLE FAMILY UNITS, THE MULTI-FAMILY UNITS ARE IN THE GOLD SHADED COLOR OR THE GOLDEN YELLOW SHADED NUMBERS. THESE ARE GRADUATED SYMBOLS.
THE LARGER THE CIRCLE THE LARGER THE UNITS AND THE STPHAULER -- THE SMALLER IT IS THE OPPOSITE. YOU SAY MOST OF THE UNITS, MULTI-FAMILY AND SPECULATIVE UNITS ARE CONCENTRATED.
IT POSSIBLER INTO THE CENTER AND INTO THE NORTHWEST -- AND ALSO NEAR THE HIGHWAY. ONE THING I WANT TO MENTION, SPECULATIVE UNITS ARE UNITS, IF WE ARE EXPECTING SOME AMOUNT OF GROWTH OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS, THE POPULATION GROWTH, THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH KNOWN ACTIONAL DEVELOPMENT THAT WE RECEIVE FROM THE PLANNERS. SO WE USE SPECULATIVE UNITS TO COVER SOME OF THE GROWTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE POPULATION WHILE NOT HAVING AS MANY UNITS AS POSSIBLE TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL GROWTH IN POPULATION! ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION HERE OR DOWN IN THE BOTTOM LEFT, OUR OVERALL RATES FOR MULTI-FAMILY AND SINGLE-FAMILY.
WE DID THIS A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY THIS YEAR.
TYPICALLY WE ARE LOOKING AT A BLOCK GROUP BY BLOCK GROUP STUDENT GENERATION GRADE FOR MULTI-FAMILY AND SINGLE-FAMILY.
THIS TIME WE ALSO DID A STAND ALONE STUDENT GENERATION RATE LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT THE YEARS 2014 TO 2021.
SINGLE IS WHAT THE GENERATION RATE HAS BEEN FOR HOUSING BUILT IN THAT TIME, MULTI-FAMILY AND SINGLE-FAMILY AND USING THAT TO CRAFT THE BLOCK GROUP BY BLOCK GROUP STUDENT RATE.
THE OVERALL AVERAGE RATE FOR SINGLE FAMILY IS .52.
AND .19 IS A BUMP FROM THE LAST TIME WE RAN THE FORECAST.
ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION, THESE ARE AVERAGE RATES IF YOU GO DEVELOP BY DEVELOP, ARE YOU GOING TO SEE PROBABLY SOME
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WILDLY DIFFERENT MULTI-FAMILY -- SINGLE-FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY GENERATION RATES AND THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED DOWN BELOW WITH THE HIGHEST RATE AND THE LOWEST USE RATE FOR DEVELOPMENTS..12 TO AS HIGH AS .95 YOUR LOWEST RATE FOR MULTI-FAMILY IS .03 SO SOME SORT OF ONE-BEDROOM AND SUPER EXPENSIVE DOWNTOWN BUSINESS DISTRICT SORT OF THING. THE HIGHEST IS .85 FOR MULTI-FAMILY AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A LOW INCOME AND WE ARE LOOKING AT REALLY HIGH STUDENT GENERATION RATES.
FORECAST METHODOLOGIES, AND WE TOUCHED ON THIS WITH A PROGRESSION MODEL AND WE COMBINE THAT BEING DRIVEN BY BIRTHS, DEATHS AND MIGRATIONS. BIRTHS WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT AND BIRTH FORECASTING HOW IT RELATES TO KINDERGARTEN FORECAST AND MIGRATION IS THE POPULATIONS CHANGES GOING BACK TO THE SPECULATIVE UNITS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON RESIDENTIAL HOUSING UNIT DEVELOPMENT. BIRTH TO KINDERGARTEN, I WILL TRY NOT TO TAKE TOO LONG GIVEN THE TIME CONSIDERATIONS, START ON THE TOP LINE IN THE BLUE, BIRTHS.
GOING FROM 2013 TO 2016 TO REPRESENT AN INCREASE IN COUNTY BIRTH FROM 24,910 TO 26,011 AND THEN DECREASING.
2017, 18, 19, 20 AND 21, AT THE TIME OF THE FORECAST WE DIDN'T HAVE 2021 NUMBERS, DECREASING YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR.
FORECASTS WE SEE AN INCREASE GOING TO 23,584 IN 2022 AND THEN STEADILY -- STEADY INCREASES AFTER THAT.
THEY ARE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED IF NOT ELEVATED POPULATIONS IN THE DISTRICT.
THE FERTILITY RATE WAS HELD FLAT IF NOT DECREASED SLIGHTLY.
THIS IS IN THAT EXPECTATION OF THE POPULATION INCREASE.
SO GROWING IN 2020 TO 24,905 IN 2027.
NOT REALLY GETTING BACK UP TO THE HIGH POINT ABOVE 2013 TO 2016, BUT STEADILY TRYING TO GET BACK UP TO THAT POINT.
KINDER -- KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT IS UNDER THE ORANGE LINE AND THEN BIRTHS IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT.
IN 2018 AND 2019, KINDERGARTEN WAS AROUND 2,300, 2,350.
AND THEN IT DECREASES AND A LITTLE RESURGENCE IN 2021 AND THEN ANOTHER INCREASE OF 2009 KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS.
THE BIRTH IS A CAPTURE RATE OF THE BIRTH THAT OCCURRED FIVE YEARS PRIOR. AND ALSO SOME SORT OF MIGRATION COMING IN ALSO. IT IS NOT 100% A CAPTURE RATE.
BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT 9.4% OF BIRTHS AND 9.3% OF BIRTHS PRIOR TO COVID AND DECREASES TO 8.3% IN 2020 AND 2021 AND ANOTHER DECREASE IN 2022 TO 7.9%. WHAT WE DID FOR THE FORECAST IS MORE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. GOING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THAT BIRTH RATIO. AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING UP TO 8.8% AND NOT BACK TO WHERE WE WERE PRE-COVID.
WHAT THAT MEANS -- WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING NOW IS A GRADUAL INCREASE. THE INITIAL DECREASE IN BIRTH BETWEEN 2017 AND 2021, WE EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE DECREASE -- OR A STEADY DECREASE IN KINDERGARTENERS FROM 2 INJURE -- 2022, 2023 AND UP TO 2026. WHEN WE GET TO 2027 WE WILL SEE INCREASES THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THAT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE K PERCENT OF BIRTH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE STEADY INCREASE OF BIRTHS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GOING UP TO 2,199 KINDERGARTENERS BY THE TIME WE GET TO 202 TWOFPLT -- 2022. SO RIGHT AROUND WHERE WE WERE
PRE-COVID. >> BEN, WE HAVE ONE QUESTION.
THIS IS CHRIS CARLSON. BOARD MEMBER.
MY QUESTION IS YOUR TREND ON BIRTHS IS NEGATIVE -- STARTING IN 2016. IT SAYS PRE-PANDEMIC BY A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT. WE ARE FORECASTING THAT THIS YEAR IT SUDDENLY STARTS GOING POSITIVE?
I'M CURIOUS WHY. >> THAT IS MOSTLY THE POPULATION
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EXPECTATION THERE. THEY DECREASED THE FERTILITY RATE THERE. IT IS A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC AND I CAN SEE IT HOLDING FURTHER DOWN. EARLY RETURNS IN 2022 AT A STATEWIDE LEVEL, MOST STATES WERE EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN BIRTHS COMPARED TO 2021. PART OF THAT IS WEIGHING IN ON THAT DECISION ALSO. UNFORTUNATELY WE DON'T HAVE 2022 BIRTHS YET FOR THE STATE OR FOR THE COUNTY.>> SURE. >> NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT THE FORECAST AT THE BY GRADE LEVEL. ANYTHING YOU SEE IN THE COLOR -- WELL WITH THE COLORING, ANYTHING YOU SEE IN THE WARMER COLORS OR THE LARGER COHORTS ARE BIGGER NUMBERS.
ANYTHING IN THE LIGHTER COHORTS -- OR SMALLER COHORTS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE 2009, 193 AND 198 AND KINDERGARTEN AND LIGHTER COHORTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT.
I WON'T FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR NUMBERS.
WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT ONE SPECIFIC PATTERN IS FROM 2023 TO 2024 AND ALL THE WAY TO ABOUT 2028 AND 2029, THE SMALLER KINDERGARTEN COHORTS THAT COME INTO SIGHT FIVE YEARS PRIOR.
AS THEY ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SYSTEM, THEY SHOULD BE GAINING IN SIZE. THE FORECAST PROGRESSION RATIOS WERE GENERALLY POSITIVE UP TO GRADE 5.
BUT THEY ARE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME OF THE COHORTS PRE SEIZING -- PRECEDING THAT.
WE ARE DECREASING THE GROWTH THAT COULD BE OCCURRING IF BIRTH INCREASED OVER THE HISTORICAL PERIOD INSTEAD OF STEADILY DECREASE. THAT STARTS TO WEIGH DOWN ON THE DISTRICT-WIDE FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LARGEST -- OR THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER COHORTS FROM GRADE 1 TO ABOUT GRADE 10 OR SO EVENTUALLY START MAKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE SYSTEM. COUPLE THESE LARGER COHORTS WITR COHORTS COMING IN. BIGGER COMING IN AND SMALLER GOING OUT, IT WILL REALLY IMPACT THE DISTRICT.
WE ARE GOING FROM 30,420 DECREASES TO 29,493.
IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF A DECREASE IN 28 AND 29.
AND A CHANCE TO SEE SOME INCREASES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE SMALLER COHORTS ARE KICKED OUT AS THEY ADVANCE OUT OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE LARGER COHORTS ARE A RESULT OF THE FORECAST.
PARTICULARLY AROUND 30, 31 TO 32 TO 33.
OUR GRADE GROUP FORECAST GIVES A LITTLE PATTERN HERE.
WE CAN HIGHLIGHT A COUPLE OF THE PATTERNS.
THE ORANGE LINE IS THE K-5 AND THE GREEN LINE IS 6 THROUGH 8 DOWN AT THE BOTTOM THERE AND 9 THROUGH 12 IS OUR PURPLE FIGURE OR PURPLE LINE THERE. KINDERGARTEN THROUGH 5TH, WE ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM 14,002. IT DECREASES TO ABOUT 13,465 OR SO BY 2029. AND THEN WE START TO SEE SOME STEADY INCREASES GOING TO 13,604 TO 13,990 BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INCREASES WILL HAPPEN IN 2028 AND THE 6 THROUGH 8 GRADE GROUP FOR THE MOST PART ARE SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND THEN SOME OF THE SMALLER COHORTS WILL START TO IMPACT 6 THROUGH 8 A LITTLE MORE.
IN THE FINAL THROUGH YEARS BY 2032.
HIGH SCHOOL IS STEADY, 8,753 IN THE CURRENT YEAR.
A SLIGHT DECREASE REALLY UP UNTIL ABOUT 2030 OR 8,667 AND THEN SOME OF THE SMALL COHORTS ENTER 9TH AND 10TH GRADE AND DECREASING -- NOT DISTRICT WIDE, BUTTON ROLL MEANT 8,501 IN
2031 AND 8,485 IN 2032. >> BEN, WE HAVE ONE MORE
>> SORRY TO INTERRUPT YOU. THE PRESSURE ON THE CLASS SIZES AND THE POPULATION AT THE HIGH SCHOOL, THEY LET OFF A LITTLE BIT, BY 20 -- IS IT 30? WE ARE STILL GONNA HAVE
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OVERCROWDED HIGH SCHOOLS, CORRECT?>> YEAH. IT IS A BIT OF A DECREASE.
MAYBE WE CAN EXTEND THIS AND WE CAN SEE SOME BIGGER DECREASES AS THE SMALLER COHORTS GET IN THERE.
IT IS NOT A HUGE DECREASE WITH THIS ANALYSIS.
>> EIGHT YEARS MORE [INAUDIBLE] SKREUB -- SCRIBED AS IT IS NOW.
>> CAN YOU REPEAT THAT? >> WE HAVE SEVERAL NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOLS THAT ARE OVER SUBSCRIBED OR OVER POPULATED.
SO THAT REALLY DIDN'T GO DOWN FOR ANOTHER EIGHT YEARS.
IT MAY SLOW, BUT IT DOESN'T GO DOWN.
>> YEAH. IT IS A GRADUAL DECREASE.
LATER ON THOUGH. >> TAKE A LITTLE PRESSURE OFF THE 600 A YEAR THING. THANK YOU.
>> WE ALSO HAVE A HIGH AND A LOW IF YOU WERE TO FLIP OVER TO THE REPORTING AND WHATNOT, THERE IS A FIGURE IN THERE AND IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE HIGH AND LOW FORECAST.
THE RED LINE AND BLUE LINE THERE.
IF WE DISAGGREGATE THEM TO THE GRADE GROUPS SK-RBGS -- K THROUGH 5 AND 9 THROUGH 12, THIS IS THE RANGE WE ARE LOOKING AT.
14,340 AND LOW AS 14,470 BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE OF THE THINGS I DO WANT TO MENTION ABOUT THE HIGH FORECAST AND THE LOW FORECAST, WE ARE NOT JUST LOOKING AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR THING TO OCCUR FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP OR THE LOW TO DEVELOP.
REALLY NEED A COMBINATION OF THINGS.
IF WE ARE LOOKING AT THE HIGH FORECAST, THAT 1430, OR IN SUBSEQUENT SLIDES, WE ARE LOOKING AT A HIGHER FORECAST GRADE PROGRESSION RATIO, MORE BIRTHS THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. MORE KINDERGARTENERS.
A HIGHER CAPTURE RATE HAS TO COME IN.
THAT'S MORE AFFORDABLE SO FAMILIES CAN MOVE IN, OR MORE AFFORDABLE MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
ON THE BOTTOM SIDE, THE 13,570, -BGS YOU NEED A COMBINATION OF THINGS TO HAVE. THAT WOULD BE A LOWER GRADE PROGRESSION RATIO AND THAT WOULD BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE HISTORICAL TREND. THE LOWER BIRTH FORECAST OR LOWER KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATE. OR THE HOUSING CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE UNAFFORDABLE FOR FAMILIES SO THEY TEND TO STAY AWAY FROM MORE URBAN AREAS GOING FARTHER AND FARTHER OUT.
IT IS NOT JUST ONE THING, BUT A SERIES OF THINGS THAT WILL HAVE
TO HAPPEN. >> 6 THROUGH 8 GRADE GROUP FORECAST A LITTLE LESS VARIATION THAN THE K THROUGH 5.
AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE 9 THROUGH 12 AND THAT'S THE MEDIUM FORECAST, 8,485. THE LOW IS THE 8,231.
THESE ARE BOTH 6 THROUGH 8 AND 9 THROUGH 12.
IF WE WERE TO GO THROUGH AND BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WOULD PROBABLY HAVE A BIGGER RANGE.
ALL OF THOSE ARE INDEPENDENT REALLY ON SOME OF THE SMALLER
AND LARGE COHORTS COMING IN. >> REAL QUICK FORECAST BY REGION, THIS IS NOW LOOKING AT SCHOOL LEVEL.
WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT THE NONATTENDANCE AREA SCHOOLS.
K THROUGH 5 WAS IN THIS REGION, THE LAKE WASHINGTON REGION LOOKING AT A 1.4% INCREASE. 7.7 AT MIDDLE SCHOOL AND 17 AT HIGH SCHOOL AND 6% ALL TOGETHER. THE NEXT SLIDE LOOKING AT 9.4% INCREASE AND THAT IS K THROUGH 5 AND 6 THROUGH 8 IS 2.9% INCREASE. 9 THROUGH 12 IS 2.4% INCREASE.
AND THEN 5.9% OVERALL. ON THE FLIP SIDE, WE CAN SEE DECREASES WELL A HAIR UNDER 1% OF THE DECLINE.
6 THROUGH 8 IS 14.8% AND REDMOND HIGH SCHOOL IS 14% FEWER STUDENTS LEADING TO ABOUT 8% FEWER STUDENTS.
EASTLAKE WITH FEWER STUDENTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE K THROUGH 5 GROUP. 17.1% AND 6 THROUGH 8 HIGH SCHOOL, THINGS LIKE HIGH SCHOOL. 261 FEWER STUDENTS OR 11.5%.
ALTOGETHER, 11.2% FEWER STUDENTS OVER THE EASTLAKE REGION.
I CAN PROBABLY GO INTO A LITTLE DETAIL AS TO WHAT MIGHT BE HAPPEN THR-G. OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPMENT AND WHAT
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WHATNOT. THAT BRINGS ME TO THE END AND HOPEFULLY THAT WAS ENOUGH TIME. IF THERE IS ANYTHING YOU WANT ME TO GO OVER, I AM MORE THAN HAPPY TO DO SO.>> THANK YOU, BEN: I ALSO WANTED TO SAY THAT THE PROJECTIONS ARE WERE DONE PRIOR TO -- THESE PROJECTIONS DO NOT ASSUME BOUNDARY CHANGES. SO ONCE THE BOUNDARY CHANGES ARE MADE, THE PROJECTIONS WILL BE UPDATED NEXT YEAR WITH -- TO
REFLECT THAT. >> BUT THE OVERALL PROJECTION WILL STAY CONSISTENT? IT IS SCHOOL BY SCHOOL THAT WILL
>> I THINK DIRECTOR CARLSON HAS A QUESTION FOR YOU.
>> I'M SORRY. I'M STILL STUCK ON SLIDE 9.
IS COUNTY LEVEL THE MOST GRANULAR REPORTING AVAILABLE FOR
WE CAN ALSO GET IT AT THE DISTRICT LEVEL.
FOR THIS SINCE WE HAVE BEEN USING COUNTY BIRTHS THE LAST FEW YEARS WE CAN STICK WITH THE COUNTY BIRTHS.
IT IS NOT JUST ONE BIRTH FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT.
I THINK AT SOME POINT THEY WILL LOOK AT THAT ALSO.
THERE IS PROBABLY ABOUT 10 DIFFERENT BIRTH FORECASTS.
WE CAN STICK WITH THE COUNTY TO KEEP WITH THE CONSISTENCY.
>> THE REASON I RAISE THIS IS THE K PERCENT OF BIRTH, 9.4 AND 8.3 AND 8.3 AND 7.9 IS A TREND WHERE OF THE PROPORTION OF BIRTHS IN THE COUNTY WE ARE GETTING FEWER OF THOSE KIDS IN THE DISTRICT. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAYS TO INTERPRET THIS. THE ONE THAT IS MOST CONSISTENT IS THOSE THAT CAN'T AFFORD IN THE DISTRICT.
I AM KIND OF SURPRISED THEY TAKE IT BACK UP TO THE 8.4%.
I EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DROP IF THE PRICE OF HOUSES GO UP.
>> IT IS IN THE REALM OF THE POSSIBILITY.
>> AND ARE FORECASTS USING DISTRICT LEVEL BIRTHS AVAILABLE?
>> THEY ARE, BUT IT IS NOT PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SO THEY HAVEN'T MADE THEIR WAY INTO THIS.
>> I THINK THAT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO DO HERE.
THANK YOU. >> DIRECTOR STEWART.
>> I REALIZE AS YOU SAY THIS, HOMES IN THIS AREA HAVE GONE THROUGH THE ROOF THE LAST 10 YEARS.
I CAN'T IMAGINE WHAT THEY -- IT IS NOTHING THAT HAS LEVELED OFF.
I DON'T SEE IT PROGRESSING THAT MUCH MORE.
I DON'T KNOW WHY THAT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE YOUNGER FAMILIES. TO BE FRANK, I HAVE YOUNGER FAMILIES MOVING INTO MY NEIGHBORHOOD WITH SEVEN-FIGURE HOUSES THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN SIX-FIGURE HOUSES.
I AM NOT SURE THAT THE YOUNGER FAMILIES ARE NOT [INAUDIBLE].
>> YOU STARTED TO BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT.
ARE THERE IF I -- ARE THERE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS?
>> I WAS CURIOUS, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONVERSATION IN THE COMMUNITY ABOUT THE TECH LAYOFFS THAT HAVE BEEN HAPPENING IN OUR AREA AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO ENROLLMENT.
I WAS WONDERING IS ANY OF THAT TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION IN ANY
OF THESE NUMBERS? >> GIVEN HOW RECENT THAT WAS, ARE IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DO. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT TYPE OF LAYOFFS. ARE PEOPLE MOVING OUT OF THE DISTRICT AND FARTHER AWAY, OR WILL THEY BOUNCE BACK AND GO FROM GOOGLE TO AMAZON TO INTEL AND SO FORTH.
IT IS REALLY JUST TAKING -- THEY DON'T GET DIRECTLY BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST. I THINK IT IS A LITTLE TOO SPECULATIVE. WE WILL GET SOME REAL DATA AND SEE HOW IT IS ACTUALLY CHANGING THE POPULATION AND THEN AT THAT POINT START MAKE SOMETHING MORE FIRM GUESSES AS PART OF THE
FORECAST. >> IN TERMS OF OUR HISTORY, IS THERE ANOTHER POINT IN TIME [INAUDIBLE].
>> CAN YOU REPEAT THAT AGAIN? >> HER QUESTION WAS IS THERE ANOTHER POINT IN TIME WHERE WE COULD REFERENCE THAT? I THINK BEFORE I ANSWER THAT, I THINK THE OTHER THING WE'LL SAY IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS VERY LOW.
SO EVEN THOUGH THE TECH SECTOR IS LAYING OFF FOLKS, THAT THERE ARE OTHER -- THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER JOB OPENINGS IN OTHER SECTORS THAT ARE IN OUR COMMUNITY.
SO WHILE ONE SECTOR MAY BE LAYING OFF, THE OTHER SECTOR IS STILL HIRING. THAT ALSO MAY TEMPER DOWN THAT.
I THINK THE LAST TIME WE HAD A FULL RECESSION WAS IN 2008,
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2009-TIME FRAME. AND OUR ENROLLMENT ACTUALLY STARTED INCREASING AFTER THAT POINT.>> ANOTHER ASPECT IS RE-- IS WE ARE REACHING OUT TO THE LOCAL COMPANIES TO FIND OUT OF THOSE LAYOFFS HOW MANY ARE REGIONAL.
THOSE WERE WORLDWIDE LAYOFFS. WE ALSO KNOW THAT AMAZON HAS STOPPED CONSTRUCTION ON THEIR SECOND HEADQUARTERS, I BELIEVE, IN VIRGINIA. AND SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY HAVE A NET INCREASE OF STUDENT ENROLLMENT HERE BASED ON AMAZON'S PRESENCE HERE AND IN THE REGION.
AS THIS PLAYS OUT, OBVIOUSLY WE WILL LAYER THOSE THINGS IN AS WE KNOW THEM, AND THERE IS -- WE STILL DON'T HAVE THAT INFORMATION FROM OUR TECH COMPANIES YET AROUND WHAT THE
IMPACT IS HERE REGIONALLY. >> IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW OUTSTANDING CONTEXT ACTUAL -- CONTEXTUAL THINGS THAT COULD AFFECT IT. KEEP THAT IN MIND.
ONE QUESTION I WOULD LIKE TO PUT OUT THOUGH TO FLOW ANALYTICS, BEN, WHILE YOU ARE HERE, AND YOU MENTIONED IT BRIEFLY.
THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION INTO OUR FOREIGN-BORN INDIVIDUALS COMING IN WITH VISAS. WE HAVE SEEN THAT IMPACT.
ARE THOSE INCORPORATED INTO THESE AT ALL?
ARE YOU ABLE TO LOOK AT THAT? >> NOT ABLE TO GET THE DATA DIRECTLY. I DON'T THINK WE HAVE DONE A DEEP DIVE FOR IT. IF IT IS OUT THERE WE SHOULD INCORPORATE IT. IF IT IS SOMETHING HAPPENING RECENTLY, SAY IN THE PAST THREE YEARS OR SO, THEN IT IS SOMETHING IN THE DATA AND IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST.
IT IS NOT IN A DIRECT MANNER. I EXPECT 7,000 MORE PEOPLE TO COME IN AS A RESULT OF VISAS IN TWO YEARS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. IF IT IS SOMETHING THAT IS HAPPENING SAY BETWEEN SAY 2020 TO 2023 AND IT IS CAPTURED IN THE DATA, THEN IT IS IN THE FORECAST, BUT NOT EXPLICITLY SO.
>> THANK YOU. >> BEN, ERIC HERE, SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO PHRASE THIS QUESTION. I'LL DO MY BEST AND MAYBE YOU
WILL HAVE TO INTERPRET IT. >> SURE.
>> OKAY. ARE YOU ABLE TO ASSESS A RELATIVE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR THE DATA THIS YEAR? AND HOW WOULD THAT COMPARE TO YEARS PAST? I GUESS IS THE MODEL LESS CERTAIN THIS YEAR THAN IT WAS IN
PRIOR YEARS? >> I WOULD SAY MAYBE -- YEAH.
IT'S BEEN DIFFICULT SINCE COVID. LIKE ANY KIND OF TRENDS AND WHATNOT, IT IS -- TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS ARE DESTROYED BY COVID AND THE LACK OF RETURN OF STUDENTS AND WHATNOT.
TWO YEARS PRIOR FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAD DONE SOMETHING, LIKE THE MISSING STUDENT PROCESS WHERE WE ARE TAKING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DECREASE IN ENROLLMENT AND THE EXPECTED STUDENTS AND APPLYING THEM TO THE BASELINE FORECAST TO BE A WAY LIKE, OKAY, STUDENTS ARE GOING TO BE COMING BACK WITH VACCINES AND WHATNOT. THEY DIDN'T.
THEY DIDN'T COME BACK IN ANY PROPORTION, CLEARLY.
AND NOW WE ARE TWO, THREE YEARS INTO THIS AND THESE TRENDS NOT COMING BACK AND THE BIRTHS HAVEN'T BEEN HAPPENING HAS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. WE HAVE BECOME MORE CERTAIN SINCE OUR BIG COVID YEAR AND LESS CERTAIN SINCE COVID.
WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE HOUSING IMPACTS AND THOSE MOVING TO THE DISTRICT POTENTIALLY. I WOULD SAY MORE CERTAIN THAN TWO YEARS AGO. MAYBE LESS CERTAIN THAN
PRE-COVID. >> DIRECTOR CARLSON?
>> TWO MORE COMMENTS THAN QUESTIONS HAVING JOINED THE BOARD IN 2008 AND HAVING GROWN THE DISTRICT AND STRUGGLED WITH THAT FOR A DECADE OR MORE, AS I PREPARE TO LEAVE THE BOARD, IT IS IRONIC I AM LOOKING AT THIS AND SAY WE MAY HAVE A DECLINING PROBLEM. I THINK THE K5 IS THE ONLY REAL GROWTH IN THE OUT YEARS. SO 5 TO 10-YEAR FORECAST HERE.
AND THAT K-5 GROWTH IS ASSUMING WE START BOUNCING BACK.
THOSE KIDS HAVEN'T BEEN BORN YET SO THAT IS A -- THAT'S A FORECAST, RIGHT? , BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR THREE HIGH, LOW AND MEDIUM FORECASTS FOR THE K-5 GROUP, THE LOW
[00:35:05]
FORECAST IS COMING BACK. IT WOULD BE PRAOU -- PRUDENT TO STAY FLAT. THANK YOU.>> EVAN KURTZ, STUDENT REPRESENTATIVE.
IN THE PAST COUPLE YEARS WE HAVE A NEW SITUATION TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT. IS THAT SOMETHING WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AS PART OF THE PROJECTIONS FOR YEARS TO COME? OR DOES THE FACT THAT IT IS ONLINE MAKE IT HARD TO ESTIMATE THAT REALITY? DO YOU MEAN IN DISTRICT ONLINE SCHOOLS OR COMPETING ONLINE SCHOOLS?
>> DISTRICT ONLINE. >> IT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT, I THINK. IT IS DEFINITELY UP TO WHAT THE STUDENTS -- NOT THE STUDENT, BUT THE PARENT CHOICE.
I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T HAVE A GREAT ANSWER FOR THAT ONE. THERE'S PLUSES AND MINUSES WITH IT. YEAH.
IF THAT'S AVAILABLE AND THE STUDENTS ARE STILL INTERESTED, IT WOULD PROBABLY STILL DRIVE SOME SORT OF GROWTH TO THE AREA.
EVERYTHING IS BEING HELD EQUAL AND ONE AREA HAS BROADBAND ACCESS AND ONE DOESN'T, THEN YOU CHOOSE THE BROADBAND.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER. I THINK AS LONG AS THE CHOICE IS THERE, CERTAINLY IT WILL BE APPEALING TO SOME GROUPS OF
PEOPLE. >> BEN, WHEN WE MET LAST WEEK, I ASKED THE QUESTION AROUND STUDENT GENERATION RATES.
OVER TIME HAVE THOSE SUBSTANTIALLY SHIFTED? THAT WAS REALLY IN RELATION TO THE QUESTION AROUND IMMIGRATION AND FAMILIES COMING FROM, YOU KNOW, GLOBALLY TO THIS AREA AND YOUR COMMENT WAS SOMETHING TO THE MANNER OF STUDENT GENERATION RATIOS HAVE REALLY BEEN CONSISTENT OVER TIME AND THAT THERE HASN'T BEEN SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATION AND THAT IF THERE IS A HOUSE AVAILABLE, THAT HOUSE IS JUST AS LIKELY TO HAVE CHILDREN IN IT BASED ON THE STUDENT GENERATION RATIO WHETHER IT IS SOMEONE ON AN H1B VISA OR SOMEONE WHO JUST IS CHANGING LOCATIONS WITHIN THE COUNTRY. IS THAT A FAIR ASSESSMENT OF
YOUR RESPONSE? >> THAT IS PRETTY GOOD.
I CAN PROBABLY PUT TOGETHER A TABLE AND SEND OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS OR SO.
SINGLE FAMILY STUDENT GENERATION , I THINK THE RATE DROPPED THIS YEAR COMPARED TO LAST YEAR THIS IS MORE LOOKING LIKE 5 TO 8% OR SOMETHING ALONG THOSE LINES IN THE PAST COUPLE
>> LAST QUESTION BECAUSE I WANT TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE TIME FOR
THE NEXT TOPIC. >> REAL QUICK.
DO WE HAVE ANYTHING TO COMPARE TO OUR NEIGHBORING DISTRICTS SUCH AS BELLEVUE THAT IS HAVING A MAJOR DIP OR NOT?
I DON'T KNOW. >> IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OR
SOMETHING ELSE? >> I KNOW WE HAVE SEEN THE DIPS IN -- WELL, BELLEVUE BECAUSE IT IS NEXT DOOR.
DO WE HAVE ANY COMPARATIVE, OUR DATA VERSUS THEIR DATA
PERCHANCE? >> I DON'T HAVE ANYTHING FOR BELLEVUE. THE CLOSEST WE HAVE IS MAYBE -- GIVE ME A FEW MINUTES. I NEED TO FIND WHERE THIS THING WENT OFF TO. WE DO HAVE AN ANALYSIS OF KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES, ORBITER BIRTH TO KINDERGARTEN RATES SURROUNDING THE DISTRICTS. I CAN SHOW YOU THAT IF YOU HAVE A COUPLE OF SECONDS IF GIVE ME THAT TO FIND WHERE IT WENT OFF
TO. >> OR, BEN, YOU COULD PROVIDE THAT, AND THEN WE COULD SEND THAT TO THE BOARD AT A LATER
>> THE ONLY THING IS I THINK WE SHARE THE DIFFERENCE -- BELLEVUE HAS ALREADY LOST ABOUT 10% OF THEIR POPULATION WHERE OUR ENROLLMENT, YOU KNOW, DECLINED 2.2%.
THAT IMPACTS THEIR FUTURE PROJECTS DIFFERENTLY AND THEY HAD A DIFFERENT -- YOU KNOW, THEIR NUMBER OF SENIORS THEY GRADUATE COMPARED TO THEIR KINDERGARTENERS IS VERY
DIFFERENT. >> FROM WHAT I RECALL FROM THAT FIGURE, YOU ARE DOING MUCH BETTER THAN SEATTLE IN REGARDS
[00:40:01]
TO YOUR KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATE.>> ALL RIGHT. I THINK THAT'S IT FOR ALL OF THE QUESTIONS. I WANT TO SAY THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THANK YOU FOR THE INFORMATION.
>> THANK YOU, BEN. >> DEFINITELY.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS SHOOT ME AN EMAIL.
I'LL BE AROUND. >> APPRECIATE IT.
>> THANK YOU. >> AND NOW WE WILL MOVE ON TO -- YEAH. IT DISAPPEARED ON ME.
WE'LL TRY IT AGAIN. >> A BIT OF TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES. WE'RE WORKING THROUGH IT.
>> NO. I JUST NEED A 4-DIGIT CODE.
>> I'VE NEVER DONE IT THIS WAY. >> ALL RIGHT.
>> OKAY. SO APPRECIATE OUR PARTNERS FROM FLO ANALYTICS SPENDING TIME WITH US FOR THAT PRESENTATION.
THAT REALLY DOES LEAD INTO THIS DISCUSSION AROUND THE 2022 CONSTRUCTION LEVY. AND SO I'M GONNA WALK THROUGH THE FIRST FEW SLIDES AND THEN HAND IT OVER TO BRIAN TO TAKE US TO UPDATE AROUND THE 2022 LEVY PROJECTS.
ONE OF THE QUESTIONS WE ARE WORKING TO ANSWER IS WHAT ARE SOME OF THE GOALS RELATED TO SCHOOL SPACE AND CAPACITY? I WILL CALL THESE DRAFT AS THEY ARE KIND OF AN INITIAL RUN.
AS WE THINK ABOUT WHAT ARE AS SEPARATION ALTAR GETS THAT -- ASPIRATIONAL TARGETS WE WANT TO ACCOMPLISH WITH OUR SCHOOL SPACE. AN ASPIRATIONAL GOALS WE HAVE IS ALL SCHOOLS IN LAKE WASHINGTON ARE ALLOWED TO ALIGN WITH THE STANDARD OF SERVICE AS DESCRIBED IN OUR EDUCATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS. THAT'S CURRENTLY NOT TRUE AS MANY OF OUR SCHOOLS. OUR ED SPEC TALKS ABOUT THE APPROPRIATE EDUCATIONAL EXPERIENCE.
ALL SCHOOLS EDUCATE STUDENTS USING PERMANENT CAPACITY WITH OUR PORTABLE CAPACITY USED AS KREUT -- CRITICAL SPACE RATHER THAN ASSUMING SPACE FOR YEAR TO YEAR SERVICE.
WE ALSO WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT ALL SCHOOLS HAVE STUDENT ENROLLMENT THAT UTILIZE 80 TO 89 % OF THE PERMANENT CAPACITY.
THAT'S A DIFFERENT MIND-SET THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD FOR MANY YEARS AROUND THE SCHOOL SPACE AND CAPACITY.
WE WANT ALL SCHOOLS TO USE THE SPACE FOR INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES FOR POSITIVE STUDENT OUTCOMES. A GREAT EXAMPLE IS WHEN WE DID OUR SCHOOL VISIT, THE REASON THEY HAVE A STEAM LAB THAT THEY DESIGNED AND BUILT AND IMPLEMENTED AT THEIR SCHOOL IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THEIR PTSA IS BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT AT 100% CAPACITY. THEY ARE IN THE 80 TO 89%.
AND SO THEY HAVE AVAILABLE SPACE TO DO INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES FOR STUDENTS. LAKE WASHINGTON USES INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE SPACE IN AND OUT OF NONTRADITIONAL SITES.
SCHOOLS WILL BELOW INDICATED IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF SPACES AND REALLY NEVER IMPLEMENTED BEFORE. AND WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT HOW
[00:45:02]
WE DO THAT AND HOW WE DO THAT WELL.AND THEY ACCOMPLISH SCHOOL SPACE AND CAPACITY AND ATHLETIC AND ACTIVITY GOALS. THOSE ARE DRAFT AND THERE IS ROOM FOR CONSIDERATION THERE, BUT AS WE THINK ABOUT THE AS STATION ALTAR GETS WE WANT TO REACH IT IS ABOUT HOW DO WE WANT TO BUILD THE SYSTEM FOR THE LONG-TERM SO THAT OUR SCHOOLS THE FLEXIBILITY TO BE ABLE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF STUDENTS WITHIN THEIR CONTEXT. TONIGHT WE WANT TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE AROUND THE 22 CONSTRUCTION LEVY PROJECTS.
REVIEW THE STAFF IS MY RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ONE SPECIFIC LEVY PROJECT AND PROVIDE THE BOARD WITH A FINANCIAL UPDATE. AND SO THE OUTCOMES FOR TONIGHT THAT THE BOARD UNDERSTAND THE CONSTRUCTION LEVY PROJECTS AND THE RECOMMENDATION RELATED TO PLANNING FOR CAPACITY IN THE REDMOND LEARNING AREA. AS A REMINDER, A SHORT FEW YEARS BACK WE TK-FPL -- DEVELOPED WHAT WE CALLED THE BUILDING EXCELLENCE PLAN AND THE 22 CONSTRUCTION LEVY WAS THAT FIRST STEP OF THE FUNDING FOR THAT PROGRAM AND WITH THAT FUNDING THERE WAS SUBSEQUENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS THAT ALIGNED WITH THAT. WE IDENTIFIED A NUMBER OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS OVER ABOUT A 10-YEAR SPAN THAT AS YOU CAN SEE WE HAD MANY DISCUSSIONS AROUND THIS FINANCIAL STRATEGY AND LANDED ON A LEVY BOND LEVY STRATEGY.
AND SO THIS IS WHAT WE PUT OUT TO THE PUBLIC.
THIS IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ON OUR WEBSITE AS WELL.
THERE IS A NUMBER OF PROJECTS WE HAVE IDENTIFIED.
THIS IS REALLY AS YOU START FROM THE BOTTOM AND WORK YOUR WAY UP, REALLY A TIMELINE OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS OF WHAT WE WERE THINKING OF ACCOMPLISHING THROUGH THE BUILDING EXCELLENCE PROGRAM. I WON'T GO INTO EACH OF THESE.
BRIAN WILL TALK ABOUT THE FIRST 29 KNIFE MILLION OF -- THE FIRST 295 MILLION OF THE PROGRAM. TONIGHT THAT'S IN TERMS OF AN UPDATE. AND WITH THAT I WILL HAND THIS OVER TO BRIAN SO HE CAN WALK THROUGH THE CONSTRUCTION LEVY
CAN YOU HEAR ME OKAY? FIRST WE ARE GONNA TALK ABOUT THE ADDITIONS AT VINHAIL, KIRKLAND AND REDMOND MIDDLE SCHOOL. THIS CHART SHOWS YOU WHERE WE ARE AT THE DESIGN DEVELOPMENT. AS A REMINDER OUR ARCHITECTS FOR THE KIRKLAND SCHOOLS IS INTEGRIS AND WE DO HAVE A GCCM CONTRACTOR B.N.BUILDERS. CONSTRUCTION IS EXPECTED TO START THIS SUMMER FOR OCCUPANCY IN FALL OF 2024.
HERE IS A RENDERING OF THE SCHEMATIC DESIGN FOR REDMOND MIDDLE SCHOOL. THE TOP LEFT SHOWS THE ADDITION HERE. IT SHOWS THE ADDITION THAT IS COPPING OFF A TIER TK*E -- TIERED WING.
THE BOTTOM PICTURE IS A CLOSE UP OF THE COURTYARD WHICH IS ACROSS FROM THE LIBRARY. SO THE LIBRARY AND THE ADDITION CREATE A NICE LITTLE COURTYARD FOR THE SCHOOLS.
THERE ARE EIGHT CLASSROOMS AND TWO STORIES FOR 200 STUDENTS.
TOP LEFT HERE IS A RENDERING LOOKING TOWARD THE LIBRARY AT THE BOTTOM FLOOR OF THE ADDITION.
TO THE RIGHT IT SHOWS WHAT THAT LAYOUT LOOKS LIKE.
THE BOTTOM LEFT SHOWS THE UPPER STORY LAYOUT.
AND THIS IS NOW JUST LOOKING FROM THE LIBRARY TOWARD THE ADDITION ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT. SIX GENERAL CLASSROOMS. TWO SIGH -- SCIENCE CLASSROOMS WITH A SHARED LEARNING SINCE -- SENSORY AREA AND SPORTS SPACES. FINN HILL MIDDLE SCHOOL, THIS DOTTED AREA HERE IS WHERE THE ADDITION IS PLANNED.
ORIGINALLY WE LOOKED AT COMING UP HERE AND MAKING ANOTHER TIER SCHOOL POD -- PEER SCHOOL POD IF YOU WILL, BUT DECIDED THIS IS A BETTER LOCATION. THIS IS THE EAS SCHOOL HERE AND WE WERE ABLE TO PRESERVE THEIR ENTRY AND THEIR GREENHOUSE AND ACTIVITIES OUT HERE. SO THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A BETTER PLACEMENT FOR THE ADDITION.
[00:50:01]
IT IS A TWO-STORY ADDITION. EIGHT CLASSROOMS FOR 200 STUDENTS. THESE ARE JUST LAYOUTS.YOU CAN SEE WHERE THIS WILL BE HERE AND THEN THE LAYOUTS OF THE SCHOOL. WE ARE USING THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE SITE FOR A TWO-STORY ADDITION, BUT NO ELEVATORS NEEDED. WE WILL HAVE RAMPS THAT GO UP FROM THE SECOND FLOOR TO THE FIRST FLOOR.
THERE ARE SIX GENERAL ED CLASSROOMS AND ONE SCIENCE CLASSROOM WITH SUPPORT SPACE. KIRKLAND MIDDLE SCHOOL IS A ONE-STORY, DE -- DETACHED ADDITION THAT CONNECTS THROUGH COVERED WALKWAYS THROUGH -- TO THE MAIN CAMPUS OR THE MAIN BUILDING. IT IS APPROXIMATELY 13,000 SQUARE FEET FOR 200 STUDENTS. THIS LAYOUT HERE IS ON THE BOTTOM LEFT AND IT IS FIVE GENERAL CLASSROOMS AND TWO SCIENCE AND THEN ONE FOOD SCIENCE CLASSROOM.
IT WILL HAVE A FENCED COURTYARD. IT WILL CREATE A FENCED COURT -- COURTYARD WITH THE MAIN BUILDING OR THE EXISTING MAIN BUILDING.
AND WE'LL HAVE STUDENT SUPPORT SPACES.
THESE PICTURES ARE ACTUALLY OF A PHOD HRAR -- MODULAR CAMPUS.
WE ARE GOING WITH THE MODULAR STRUCTURE WHERE WE BUILD IT OFF SITE AND THEN ASSEMBLE ON SITE. LET'S SEE.
NEXT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITIONAL HIGH SCHOOL ON THE EASTSIDE. JUST A REMINDER WE ARE IN THE SCHEMATIC DESIGN HERE. THIS SITE IS IN THE SAMMAMISH TOWN CENTER. MALEM ARCHITECTS ARE OUR ARCHETECT. THIS SHOWS THE SITE AND NORTH IS TO THE BOTTOM WHICH IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT.
THE EAST IS OVER HERE. THIS IS EASTSIDE CATHOLIC OVER HERE. THIS IS A 15 AND A HALF ACRE SITE. IT DOES HAVE WET LANDS.
WE CAN BUILD UP TO FOUR STORIES AND 26 CLASSROOMS AND 600 STUDENT CAPACITY AND MULTIPLE PHASES FOR THIS SITE.
LET ME GO BACK. MET MARKET FROM THIS DIAGRAM HERE WOULD BE ACROSS THE STREET, STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STREET.
ON THIS ONE AGAIN, STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STREET OVER HERE.
SO THIS IS TO THE WEST. THIS IS TO THE EAST.
>> YOU SAID UP TO FOUR BUILDINGS.
SO THIS PLUS THREE ADDITIONAL COULD BE ON THERE.
WE GOT SOME ADDITIONAL LAND PICTURES FOR YOU.
SO TPO*R THE UPDATE ON THE SCHEMATIC DESIGN HERE -- BY THE WAY, ALL OF THOSE TREES, THAT'S WHAT THE CURRENT SITE LOOKS LIKE FROM AN AERIAL. HERE IS A LAYOUT OF THE TOWN CENTER IN GENERAL. THIS IS WHAT TODAY'S CONTEXT LOOKS LIKE. THIS IS THE CITY COMMONS DOWN HERE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE TOWN CENTER PLAN, YOU CAN SEE HOW WE ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP MORE AREAS ON THE WEST. OUR SITE IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THE FIRST TO DEVELOP HERE ON THE EAST.
THIS SHOWS THE WET LANDS THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE TOWN CENTER.
OUR SITE AGAIN IT RIGHT HERE. AND THEN HERE IS A POTENTIAL LAYOUT AND DENSITY FOR OUR SITE. THIS IS A NEW MAIN BUILDING WITH A GYM AND POTENTIAL FUTURE STRUCTURE PARKING.
THIS COULD BE A FUTURE ADDITION HERE.
AGAIN, NORTH -- I WOULD SAY NORTH IS UP IS -- IN THIS SCENARIO AND EAST IS TO THE RIGHT.
THERE IS THE ABILITY TO HAVE A FUTURE SCHOOL HERE AND A FUTURE ADDITION HERE, A FUTURE BUILDING TBD HERE AND A FUTURE EARLY LEARNING CENTER. TOTAL BUILDINGS ARE 1, 2, 3, AND
THIS WOULD ALL BE CONSIDERED 4. >> THIS IS THE MAIN BUILDING FOR THIS PROJECT WHICH WE HAVE A PLANNED GYM.
AND THEN IN THE FUTURE IT IS STRUCTURED PARKING IN THESE OTHER BUILDINGS. THAT'S ABOUT 600.
[00:55:09]
SO HERE IS OUR SITE CURRENTLY. THIS IS YOUR DESIGN TEAM ON THE RIGHT. THAT'S LOOKING AT THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT. THAT'S IN THE WAY THEY WANT TO DESIGN OUR NEW SCHOOL. THE SITE PLAN FOR THE NEW SCHOOL , THIS IS THE EXISTING APARTMENTS ALONG SOUTHEAST FIRST AND THEN THIS IS OUR INITIAL BUILDING HERE WITH THE GYM AND SUPPORTIVE SPACES HERE. TWO PARKING STRUCTURES -- THIS IS NOT STRUCTURES. THIS IS FLAT PARKING HERE AND HERE AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT COULD TURN INTO STRUCTURED PARKING IN THE FUTURE. THE BUILDING ADDITION WOULD GO OVER THIS PARKING. SO JUST LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENCE -- THEY CALL THIS THE MASSEY.DOWN HERE THIS IS NORTH. THIS IS THE MAIN BUILDING HERE WITH THE GYM GOING OUT THIS WAY AND THE TWO PARKING LOTS.
THE BUS LOOP IS ON THE EASTSIDE. YOU ENTER FROM HERE.
HERE IT IS WITH THE EAST ON THE BOTTOM WHERE THE BUSES WOULD COME IN AND LOOP AROUND HERE. AGAIN, NOW WE ARE LOOKING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS THE PARKING LOT -- EXCUSE ME. THIS IS KIND OF -- YEAH.
IT IS FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS THE PARKING LOT HERE WITH THE GYM HERE AND THE OTHER PARKING LOT OVER THERE.
AND THEN HERE IS SOME EXTERIOR RENDERING.
THIS IS JUST ONE LOOK AT IT. THIS IS THE MAIN ENTRANCE HERE.
>> BRIAN, CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE ABOUT HOW THEY ARE DESIGNING THE BUILDING TO BE FLEXIBLE SO THAT IN THE FUTURE --
SO WE ARE DESIGNING THIS BUILDING FOR HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS. UNDERSTANDING THAT THE PROGRAMMING HAS YET TO BE DEFINED FOR WHAT GRADES OF HIGH SCHOOL ARE GOING TO BE IN THERE. WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT AS WE GO FORWARD THIS WILL TRANSFORM INTO SOMETHING ELSE MAYBE A MIDDLE SCHOOL OR ANOTHER SECONDARY SPACE.
WE ARE DESIGNING IT TO BE FLEXIBLE.
DEPENDING ON WHAT TYPE OF PROGRAMMING COMES IN THERE, WE WILL BE ABLE TO MEET THOSE NEEDS.
AGAIN, NOTHING BEING DESIGNED AT THIS POINT.
NO SCHEMATIC DESIGN LOCKS US INTO ANY ONE PROGRAM OR MODEL.
>> CAN YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT SOME OF THE FLEXIBILITY ITEMS WOULD
FOR EXAMPLE -- LET ME SEE IF I CAN GO BACK HERE.
FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THESE BIG COMMON SPACES, WE HAVE THIS AREA THAT IS PLANNED FOR POTENTIAL FOOD SCIENCE ROOMS. IF WE DON'T NEED FOOD SCIENCES IT CAN BECOME A DIFFERENT TYPE OF A LAB, A SCIENCE LAB. WE ALSO HAVE COMMON -- AND I CAN'T TELL FROM THIS DRAWING, BUT WE HAVE A COMMONS THAT BACKS UP TO A PERFORMING ART AREA AND A MUSIC ROOM.
SO IF IT BECOMES AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, IT IS ADJACENT TO THE MUSIC ROOM. IT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR A STAGE IN THE COMMONS. THEY ARE KEEPING THE UH JASON SEES OPEN -- THEY ARE KEEPING THE ADJACENCIES OPEN.
>> [INAUDIBLE]. >> SAY THAT ONE MORE TIME?
>> [INAUDIBLE]. >> I BELIEVE IT IS TO THE NORTH.
SO NORTH IS UP IN THIS PICTURE. IS THAT -- AM I UNDERSTANDING THAT QUESTION CORRECTLY? YEAH.
TO THE SOUTH IS CRUSADER. YEAH.
>> BRIAN, THE RATIONAL BEHIND THIS WAS BASICALLY WE KNOW WE HAVE A LOT OF OVERCROWDING AT EASTLAKE HIGH SCHOOL.
THIS WAS A WAY TO PULL THAT OFF FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, AND THEN WHEN THE FIFTH COMPREHENSIVE HIGH SCHOOL OPENS UP IT WILL
GIVE THE FLEXIBILITY TO DO SO. >> CORRECT.
[01:00:02]
>> [INAUDIBLE]. >> TO BE DETERMINED.
THAT'S WHAT WE ARE WORKING THROUGH RIGHT NOW.
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FIFTH COMPREHENSIVE HIGH SCHOOL ON THE HORIZON AND THINKING ABOUT HOW DO WE ON-RAMP THE STUDENT PROGRAM AND HOW DO YOU OFF-RAMP IT WELL WITH THE EXISTENCE OF A FIFTH COMPREHENSIVE HIGH SCHOOL SO YOU THEN AREN'T, IF YOU WILL, DILUTING THE STUDENT ENROLLMENT AT ALL OF THE SITES AND THEN NOT REALLY USING THE AVAILABLE CAPACITY FOR THE VARIOUS LEVELS THAT WE NEED. WE ARE JUST TALKING THROUGH LIKE WHAT IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS SITE KNOWING THAT THE OVERALL GOAL IS TO HAVE A FIFTH COMPREHENSIVE HIGH SCHOOL THAT WOULD PULL ADDITIONAL STUDENTS FROM EASTLAKE.
THE POTENTIAL ADDITION -- IT WOULD LAY ON THE WEST -- WHERE WE HAD ONE. WE HAD A DRAWING FOR THAT.
>> I'M TURNED AROUND. >> SO NORTH IS UP.
>> ON THE WEST THERE. THAT SAYS FUTURE CLASSROOM ADDITION. DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HOW MANY
CLASSROOMS? >> IT WOULD GO FROM 600 TO 900
STUDENTS. >> WITH THAT ADDITION?
>> SO 900 IS LIKE A STANDARD SCHOOL.
>> AND THEN -- YEAH. A SIMILAR QUESTION FOR THE FUTURE SCHOOL AT THE BOTTOM. DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF HOW MANY
STUDENTS THAT FITS. >> THIS IS A TYPICAL ELEMENTARY
>> YEAH. THERE CURRENTLY ARE NO FIELDS, BUT YOU COULD HAVE FIELDS IN HERE.
YEAH. >> AND THEN IT SAYS FUTURE
BUILDING TBD. >> SO HERE IS AN EXTERIOR RENDERING. THESE ARE IDEAS ON COLORS AND EXTERIOR EXAMPLES. HERE WE GO.
TALKING THE WEST SIDE HIGH SCHOOL.
THIS IS THE MAIN ENTRANCE AND THIS IS THE PARKING LOT.
THESE ARE JUST -- YEAH. THIS IS JUST -- THESE ARE JUST IDEAS RIGHT NOW. IT IS THE POTENTIAL EXTERIOR
SITE. >> SO JUST A QUICK QUESTION IN REGARDS TO THE PLANNING PROCESS. AS YOU GO THROUGH THIS, ARE THERE COMMUNITY MEMBERS AND SCHOOLS WHO ARE INVOLVED IN SOME OF THIS WORK THAT YOU ARE DOING AT THIS POINT, OR DOES THAT COME
AT A LATER DATE? >> THAT WOULD COME AT A LITTLE LATER DATE? YEAH.
SO WE HAVEN'T TALKED TO THE SCHOOL.
THE SCHOOL PLANNING PRINCIPAL OR THE LOCAL -- LIKE EASTLAKE HIGH SCHOOL OR INGELWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOL.
>> OKAY. THAT WOULD BE AN INTERESTING PIECE HAVING THAT INVOLVEMENT AT THIS TIME AS I AM SEEING ENVISIONED AS TO THE PROGRAMMING COME POEPB TPHEPT, ACTUALLY --
>> I REALIZE WE ARE OFF THE PLATEAU, BUT YOU SHOWED [INAUDIBLE] SHOWING THE BUILDING NOT CONNECTED.
AND IT HAD AN OPEN SPACE. I THOUGHT WE WERE GETTING AWAY FROM THE OPEN CAMPUSES, IF YOU WILL.
>> WE LOOKED AT LOTS OF OPTIONS AND THE PRIMARY COST ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SITE WAS THE CONNECTING PIECE IS WHERE ALL OF OUR MAJOR UTILITIES ARE RUNNING. AND SO FOR US TO BUILD OVER THAT WE WOULD HAVE TO RELOCATE ALL OF THOSE UTILITIES AND IT WAS JUST FAR TOO EXPENSIVE. THEN IT BECAME A CHOICE AS TO
[01:05:01]
WHERE WE BUILD IT. EITHER NEXT TO THE BUILDING, BUT CONNECTED WITH A COVERED WALKWAY OR WHETHER WE PUT IT ON THE>> YEAH. WE BELIEVE WE CAN FENCE THOSE IN SIMILAR TO HOW WE FENCED IN LAKE WASHINGTON HIGH SCHOOL'S EXISTING GYM. WE FENCED THAT IN AND GAVE THEM
A COVERED WALKWAY. >> ADDITIONAL CAPACITY ON THE WEST SIDE. AND CURRENTLY FALL 2027.
THIS WAS OUR FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR ADDITIONAL BUILDING.
YOU HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CITING OF A CHOICE HIGH SCHOOL AT THE TIME. HERE IS WHERE A NEW MIDDLE SCHOOL COULD FIT AS WELL. MORE PLANNING TO GO THERE AS
WELL. >> SO THE PLAN WAS TO HAVE THE SCHOOL BE AN INTERMEDIARY AND THEN CHANGE TO SOMETHING ELSE.
IS THAT A SIMILAR IDEA HERE OR IS THIS CHOICE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PERMANENT OR DO WE NOT KNOW?
>> IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PERMANENT.
>> OKAY. >> AND WE OWN THE RIGHT HAND
CORNER OF THE VIEW THERE. >> YEAH.
>> AND NOW WE ARE AT THE NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ON THE REDMOND ELT MEN TREE CAM -- REDMOND ELEMENTARY CAMPUS.
>> I'M TAKING IT FROM THERE. SO IN DECEMBER WE AS A STUDY SESSION IN DECEMBER, WE BROUGHT TO YOU THAT WE WERE EVALUATING KIND OF THE REDMOND ELEMENTARY AREA GIVEN THE CHANGES -- THE CHANGING ENROLLMENT FORECAST. AND SO WE WANT TO PRESENT YOU AN UPDATE. WE SAID WE WOULD MAKE A DETERMINATION IN LATE WINTER REGARDING PROJECTS AND STRATEGIES. THE THINGS WE WOULD TAKE CONSIDERATION IS ADDING CAPACITY ON THE REDMOND CAMPUS AND ADDRESSING AGING FACILITIES AND INCREASE CAPACITY IN THE REDMOND AREA. OUR RELY INTELIGENCE ON PORTABLES. WE CAN SHIFT THROUGH BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS AND WE CAN SHIFT PROGRAMS TO ALIGN WITH ENROLLMENT. THAT'S SOMETHING WE DO ON A REGULAR BASIS. A REMINDER THAT OUR 2022 CONSTRUCTION LEVY THAT WE SHARE WITH VOTERS PROVIDE THESE PROJECTS. BRIAN HAS TALKED ABOUT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTS. THIS WAS THE 550 ELEMENTARY CAPACITY THAT OUR FACILITY ADVISORY COMMITTEE RECOMMENDED.
THIS WAS STEP ONE OF THE BUILDING EXCELLENCE PLAN.
THOSE WERE THE SLIDES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRESENTATION.
WE ARE BRINGING -- THIS IS UPDATED BASED ON THE FLO ANALYTICS FORECAST. THEY PUT TOGETHER THIS PICTURE VIEW OF THE CAPACITY, THE UTILIZATION BASICALLY FOR ALL OF OUR SCHOOLS. AGAIN, FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL -- THE REDMOND AREA OF THE DISTRICT.
LATER I WILL SHOW YOU THE SLIDE AND USING THE FORECAST BECAUSE THAT IS CONSISTENT WHEN THEY MADE THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS.
IT WAS BASED ON FLO'S FORECAST IN 2020 WITH PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2029. I AM TRYING TO KEEP THAT CONSISTENT. YOU CAN SEE ANYTHING IN YELLOW OR RED IS OVER CAPACITY. AND THEN BLUE AND GREEN ARE UNDER OR AT CAPACITY. SO OUR RECOMMENDATION WAS BASED ON THE PROJECTS FEBRUARY OF 2020 AS I MENTIONED THROUGH 2029.
AT THE TIME AND AGAIN OUR FORECASTS ARE MADE UP OF GRADE
[01:10:01]
PROGRESSION AND ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT.SO THE CONTINUED GROWTH, SO ABOUT 2900 UNITS IN THE CITY CENTER AND WE BROKE THAT UP. PREVIOUSLY YOU SAW A SLIDE THAT WAS COMBINED. CONTINUED GROWTH TO 300 TO 400 OF OUR STUDENTS AND THE FACILITY ADVISORY RECOMMENDATION WAS TO USE THE UNDERDEVELOPED LAND AND ON THE REDMOND CAMPUS TO ADD 550 STUDENTS WHAT -- WHAT IS CURRENT IS THE CURRENT NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. FLO HAS PROVIDED THE UPDATED LONG-TERM FORECAST. AND THEN THE FORECASTS CONTINUE.
THEY ARE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN REDMOND.
IT WILL TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT FEES LATER ON IN THE FINANCIAL SECTION. SO IT IS ABOUT 3,000 UNITS IN DOWNTOWN REDMOND AND THAT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH.
AND JUST A REMINDER, AS BEN SHARED, YOU KNOW, OUR MULTI-FAMILY UNITS ARE GENERATING A LOT LESS.
IT IS ABOUT .19 FOR K-12 OR .1 FOR ELEMENTARY STUDENTS.
SO LOWER BIRTHS, LOWER KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT AND GRADE PROGRESSION. AND OUR OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE YEAR HAS BEEN REDUCED. SO WE SHARED THIS SLIDE A LITTLE BIT IN DECEMBER AND SO BASICALLY IT PROJECTS THE PROJECTION FOR FALL OF 2029. AT THE TIME REDMOND ELEMENTARY WAS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM 654 STUDENTS TO A THOUSAND STUDENTS.
THE REALITY IS AFTER -- AND THEN NEXT YEAR WHEN THEY DID THEIR NEXT YEAR'S PROJECTIONS FOR REDMOND ELEMENTARY WAS 855 AND THIS YEAR THE PROJECTIONS ARE 747 FOR THAT TARGET AND THE STUDENTS. AND SO THE OTHER PIECE -- SO ALL OF THE REDMOND AREA SCHOOLS COMBINED -- AND SO RIGHT NOW THIS YEAR THEY ARE AT 3727. THE LAST BASICALLY LOOKS AT THE PERMANENT CAPACITY SHORT FALL AND THEN IT IS BROKEN OUT BY THE REDMOND MIDDLE SCHOOL, FEEDER SCHOOLS AND TIMBER LINE FIGHT -- FEEDER SCHOOL ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS.
OVERALL PERMANENT CAPACITY IN THE REDMOND AREA, THERE IS A SHORT FALL -- WELL, ACTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SURE PLUS -- A SURPLUS. IF YOU BREAK IT DOWN GUY -- BY FEEDER IT IS REALLY BAKER AND ROSA PARKS AND WILDER.
SO 348 SURPLUS PERMANENT CAPACITY AND REDMOND MIDDLE IS 84. THIS IS ANOTHER VIEW OF THE CAPACITY OF THE REDMOND AREA IT IS IN THE COLOR PROGRESSION WHERE YELLOW AND RED ARE CRITICAL TO OVERCAPACITY.
THE TOP PART OF THE TABLE HAS OUR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS LISTED ALPHABETICALLY. AND SO YOU CAN SEE THE CHANGE BETWEEN 2022 AND THEN I HAVE SHOWN THE 29 -- 29/30 PROJECTION. AND THEN THIS YEAR THE 10-YEAR PROJECTION GOES OUT TO 2032. AND THEN THE LAST TWO ROWS ON THE TABLE, YOU BREAK IT OUT BETWEEN THE DOWNTOWN EDUCATION SCHOOLS WHICH IS BARTON AND EINSTEIN AND ANN AND REDMOND AND ROCKWELL VERSUS BAKER PARKS AND WILDER WHICH IS THE TIMBER LINE FEEDER. THE PROJECTIONS SHOW OUR
[01:15:01]
DOWNTOWN EDUCATION HILL SCHOOLS WILL BE 97 TO 100% PERMANENT CAPACITY. AND ABOUT 13 STUDENTS OVER PERMANENT CAPACITY. TOTAL CAPACITY IF YOU LOOK AT PORTABLES AND WE HAVE 18 PORTABLES IN THE EINSTEIN, MANN, REDMOND AND ROCKWELL AREA, THE TOTAL CAPACITY IS 83 TO 86% RANGE. SO THIS IS JUST THE 10-YEAR FORECAST. SO IT CAN SHOW THAT THIS IS A PICTURE -- A PICTORAL VIEW OF UTILIZATION THROUGH 2022.REDMOND AND EINSTEIN ARE OVER AND REDMOND AND MANN ARE UNDER
CAPACITY. >> AND THAT IS LOOKING AT TOTAL
>> OKAY. AND AS WE STARTED THIS WORK OF EVALUATING OUR 22 CONSTRUCTION LEVY PROJECTS, WE BROUGHT TO YOU IN DECEMBER THIS CONCEPT OF POTENTIALLY REEVALUATING THE REDMOND L CAMPUS AND THE SITE THAT WAS GOING TO BE BUILT THERE. AS YOU KNOW WE BROUGHT TO YOU THE IDEA THAT WE WANTED TO EVALUATE THIS.
SO TONIGHT WE ARE BRINGING YOU A RECOMMENDATION.
YOU WILL SEE IT IN A FEW SLIDES. THE RECOMMENDATION IS TO NOT MOVE FORWARD WITH THE NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ON REDMOND ELEMENTARY CAMPUS. IF THAT'S THE CASE, MY FIRST QUESTION IF I WERE YOU IS WHAT DID YOU CONSIDER ALT TURN TIFF -- ALTERNATIVELY IF YOU ARE NOT RECOMMENDING TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE REDMOND ELEMENTARY CAMPUS? I WANT TO WALK THROUGH A FEW COMPONENTS FOR YOU.
FIRST CONSIDERATION LISTED HERE IS TO ADDRESS AGING FACILITIES AND INCREASE CAPACITY BY REBUILDING AND ENLARGING ROCKWELL. WE ALSO CONSIDERED SOME OTHER SITES AS WELL AND CONSIDERED A NEW PLAN.
WE CONSIDERED REDMOND AREA ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND USING THE DOLLARS TO PRE DESIGN ALL OF OUR AGING FACILITIES THROUGH SCHEMATIC DESIGN WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE.
WE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDRESSING PORTABLES IN THE CAPACITY ISSUES OF THE DOWNTOWN AND EDUCATION HILLS OF REDMOND.
>> [INAUDIBLE]. >> SO THE QUESTION IS, WHICH
TITLE ONE SCHOOLS. >> OUR TITLE ONE SCHOOLS ARE IN THE NEAR ELEMENTARY AND ROBERT FROST.
>> I AND THEN SIX AND SEVEN THERE ARE LOOKING AT CHANGING SCHOOL ATTENDANCE BOUNDARIES AND CHANGE PROGRAM LOCATIONS.
AND I WANT TO TALK ABOUT EACH OF THESE.
NUMBER ONE SHOULD SAY ROCKWELL AND OTHERS.
WE LOOKED AT ALL OF OUR AGING ELEMENTARIES TO MAKE A DETERMINATION AROUND WOULD WE MAKE A RECOMMENDATION TO REBUILD AND ENLARGE ANY OF OUR SCHOOLS OUTSIDE OF THE REDMOND AREA.
AND REL -- REALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PROJECTIONS FROM BEN, REALLY THE ONE AREA THAT HAS PROJECTED GROWTH AT THE ELEMENTARY LEVEL, SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IS IN THE REDMOND AREA DOWNTOWN AND EDUCATION HILL AREA.
YOU SAW HUA KNEE HUH -- JUANITA HAS A POSITIVE GROWTH TREND AND LAKE WASHINGTON. AS WE THINK ABOUT NEEDED CAPACITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE, YOU DID SEE THAT THE DOWNTOWN REDMOND AREA AND EDUCATION HILL AREA WHEN WE LOOK AT THE PERMANENT CAPACITY. WE KNOW THAT L CUTT ELEMENTARY AND SMITH ELEMENTARY ARE SIMILAR AGES.
OUR NEXT SLIDE WALKS THROUGH A NUMBER OF ELEMENTS OF OUR EVALUATION. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT BUILDING A NEW ELEMENTARY ON THE PARK 188 PROPERTY, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE LOOKED AT WAS THE MERRIMOOR VILLAGEN DASH -- DASH VILLAIN ENROLLMENT. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FORECAST FOR 1100 UNITS, IT GENERATES A HUNDRED STUDENTS, ELEMENTARY STUDENTS. THAT'S NOT ENOUGH TO FILL A SCHOOL AND WE KNOW THAT THAT AREA RIGHT NOW IS SERVED BY DICKEN SON ELEMENTARY AND ELLCUTT ELEMENTARY.
[01:20:07]
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AND DECLINE OVER TIME.THAT'S NOT PART OF THE RECOMMENDATION TO BUILD ON THE PARK 188 SITE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT ADDING ADDITIONS WE ARE ADDING THREE ADDITIONS TO THE MIDDLE SCHOOLS.
IT DEFINITELY HAS BECOME PART OF OUR EVALUATION PROCESS AND WAYS TO ADDRESS PERMANENT CAPACITY NEEDS.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT SITE THAT'S COULD TAKE ADDITIONS, ONE CLARA BARTON ELEMENTARY WAS ABLE TO ACCEPT IN ADDITION.
ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT TAKES A SCHOOL THAT IS A 690-STUDENT SCHOOL AND ADDING AN ADDITION, IT WOULD CREATE A SCHOOL OF ABOUT 900 STUDENTS. WE KNOW THAT'S NOT THE IDEAL SIZE FOR AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. THE OTHER SCHOOL WE LOOKED AT WAS MANN ELEMENTARY. WE KNOW THAT SITE FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WAS DESIGNED TO BE MORE OF A WALKING SCHOOL.
IT DOESN'T HAVE A BUS LOOP. SO ADDING ADDITIONAL PERMANENT CAPACITIES TO THAT SITE WOULD COME WITH SOME UNIQUE CHALLENGES. AND SO WE DIDN'T -- WE ARE NOT RECOMMENDING THAT EITHER RIGHT NOW.
PRE DESIGNING AGING FACILITYIES -- FACILITIES, WE KNOW IT IS A GOOD IDEA, BUT WE ALSO KNOW THESE DOLLARS ARE INTENDED FOR PROVIDING CAPACITY FOR ENROLLMENT CHANGES.
AT THIS TIME OUR RECOMMENDATION ISN'T TO DO PRE-DESIGNING ALL THE WAY THROUGH SCHEMATIC DESIGN EVEN THOUGH WE THINK THAT IN THE FUTURE THAT COULD DEFINITELY BENEFIT OUR ONGOING FUNDING PROMOTION AND INFORMATIONAL CAMPAIGNS AS WE DESCRIBE FOR THE COMMUNITY WHAT WE ARE THINKING ABOUT IN TERMS OF SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION. AND THEN THE LAST THREE REALLY ARE RESPONSES TOY PER GENT NEEDS AND -- TO EMERGENT NEEDS.
ADDING PORTABLES HAS BEEN A STRATEGY WE USED FOR YEARS.
WE KNOW THAT IS NOT THE STRATEGY OUR PARENTS PREFER.
THEY TOLD US OVER AND OVER THAT PORTABLE CLASSROOMS ARE NOT IDEAL. AND CONTINUING TO USE THAT AS A STRATEGY WE BELIEVE IS NOT THE BEST USE OF RESOURCES.
AND THEN SIX AND SEVEN AS WE CHANGE SCHOOL CAPACITIES OR AS WE LOOK TO UTILIZE CAPACITY, THOSE ARE STRATEGIES THAT WE USE. WE DON'T BELIEVE THIS IS THE OVERALL STRATEGY THAT WILL ACCOMPLISH THE TASK IN THE REDMOND AREA. I WANT TO JUST GO OVER THE AGING FACILITIES WE LOOKED AT AND CONSIDERED.
WE HAVE THREE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SITES RIGHT NOW THAT WE CONSIDER AN AGING FACILITY. THESE ARE NOT IN ALIGNMENT WITH OUR EDUCATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS. SO LOOKING AT ALCOTT ELEMENTARY VERSUS ROCKWELL AND ROCKWELL IN 81 AND ALCOTT IN 86 AND SMITH IN 88. WE LOOKED AT WHICH PHASE OF THE BUILDING EXCELLENCE PLAN WERE THESE DIFFERENT SITES SCHEDULED TO BE REBUILT AND ENLARGED? YOU CAN SEE ALCOTT AND SMITH WERE IN PHASE 2 THAT WAS A BOND MEASURE.
AND ROCKWELL ELEMENTARY IN PHASE 3 WHICH WAS THE SECOND LEVY.
WHEN WE LOOKED AT ENROLLMENT SCHOOL CHANGES THROUGH 2032, IN THE VARIOUS FEEDER PATTERNS THAT THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN THESE AREAS ARE FEEDING TO, YOU CAN SEE THAT THE EVERGREEN MIDDLE SCHOOL FEEDER WHICH IS MADE UP OF ALCOTT AND DICKEN SON AND IT IS JUST THOSE TWO? THANK YOU.
AND IT IS MADE UP OF ALCOTT AND DICKEN SON.
IT IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE BY RIGHT AROUND 6%.
THE REDMOND MIDDLE SCHOOL FEEDER THAT IS MADE UP OF REDMOND ELEMENTARY, MANN, ROCKWELL, EINSTEIN BARTON -- THANK YOU.
THEY ARE SCHEDULED TO GROW OR PROJECTED TO GROW BY A LITTLE OVER 5%. THE INGELWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOL FEEDER AND I WON'T EVEN ATTEMPT TO RECITE OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD ALL OF THOSE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS. GENERALLY THE SCHOOLS IN THE
[01:25:01]
SAMMAMISH -- THE CITY OF SAMMAMISH.THEY ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASEN ROLL MEANT BY ABOUT 8%.
DECREASE ENROLLMENT BY 8%. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE CAPACITY BY 32, PERMANENT AND TOTAL CAPACITY YOU CAN SEE PERMANENT CAPACITY AND THE EVERGREEN MIDDLE SCHOOL FEEDER IS 102% WITH TOTAL CAPACITY AROUND 71. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US? IT TELLS US THAT CURRENTLY ALCOT AND DICKENSON ARE USING PORTABLE CAPACITY TO ADDRESS THEIR NEEDS. WE ALSO KNOW THAT THE REDMOND MIDDLE PERMANENT CAPACITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE EVERGREEN FEEDER ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS WITH THEIR TOTAL CAPACITY BEING ABOUT 15% HIGHER. AND INGELWOOD, A SIMILAR PERCENT IN PERMANENT VERSUS TOTAL CAPACITY BEING USED AND KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE A NUMBER OF PORTABLES IN THE SAMMAMISH AREA AS WELL. AND SO OUR RECOMMENDATION TONIGHT REALLY IS TO REPURPOSE LEVY FUNDS TO REBUILD AND ENLARGE ROCKWELL ELEMENTARY FOR OCCUPANCY IN FALL OF 2026.
WHY ARE WE MAKING THIS RECOMMENDATION? DUE TO THE CHANGE IN OVERALL PROJECTIONS, THE CURRENT NEED FOR A NEW SCHOOL OF 550 IN DOWNTOWN REDMOND HAS CHANGED.
YOU SAW THAT VERY EARLY ON WITH THE CHANGES IN PROJECTED ENROLLMENT AT REDMOND ELEMENTARY.
WE BELIEVE THAT THIS DOES MEET SOME OF OUR GOALS AROUND MAKING SURE THAT OUR SCHOOLS ARE BUILT WITHIN OUR EDUCATIONAL SPECIFICATION. WE HAVE STATED TO THE COMMUNITY THAT UPDATING OUR AGING FACILITIES IS ONE OF OUR PRIORITIES. AND SO THIS DOES ADDRESS AN AGING FACILITY WHICH IS PART OF OUR LONG-TERM GOALS.
IT ALSO ADDRESSES AN AGING FACILITY NEED AT A LOWER COST BY BUILDING IT NOW RATHER THAN IN PHASE 3.
SO IF YOU THINK ABOUT TODAY'S DOLLARS VERSUS WHEN WE WOULD BUILD IT IN SIX, SEVEN YEARS, YOU ADD 8% PER YEAR FOR CONSTRUCTION ESCALATION COSTS AND, YOU KNOW, TODAY'S DOLLARS WERE -- WE'RE BUILDING IT AT A PH*UFP -- MUCH OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RATE COMPARED TO WHEN WE WOULD BE BUILDING IT IN PHASE 3.
IT ALSO REDUCES THE NEED FOR SOME NEAR-TERM LIFE CYCLE UPGRADES AT AN EUPBLGING FACILITY -- AT AN AGING FACILITY. AND THAT IS A TRUE STATEMENT FOR ALL OF OUR AGING FACILITIES. THEY -- THERE ARE LIFE CYCLE UPGRADES AND UPDATES WE HAVE TO DO.
THAT'S TRUE FOR OUR OTHER AGING FACILITIES AS WELL.
BUT BY REPLACING AND ENLARGING ROCKWELL ELEMENTARY, IT WILL REDUCE OUR NEED TO DO THOSE LIFE CYCLE UPGRADES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS ALSO ADDS 252 PERMANENT CAPACITY TO AN AREA THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW.
THE PERMANENT CAPACITY WOULD INCREASE FROM 438 TO 690 STUDENTS. AND THAT IS ASSUMING TODAY'S CLASS SIZES. SO IF THERE IS ANY CHANGES IN CLASS SIZES IN THE FUTURE, THOSE CAPACITY NUMBERS WOULD DEFINITELY CHANGE. BUT THAT IS REFERENCING TODAY'S CLASS SIZES. THIS RECOMMENDATION ALSO IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE FACILITY TASK FORCE'S RECOMMENDATION REDUCES RELIANCE ON PORTABLE CLASSROOMS AND ALLOWS FOR FUTURE PLANNING AND CONSIDERATIONS ON THE REDMOND ELEMENTARY CAMPUS.
>> COULD YOU CLARIFY? YOU ARE SAYING THAT EXPECTED GROWTH -- PROJECTED GROWTH -- PROJECTED GROWTH WOULD BE IN THE ELEMENTARY AREA? WE ARE ASSUMING THERE WOULD BE A
SO AS WE THINK ABOUT THE REDMOND AREA GROWTH, IT REALLY IS -- BOTH REDMOND ELEMENTARY AND EINSTEIN ELEMENTARY THAT ARE PROJECTED TO BE OVER A HUNDRED PERCENT PERMANENT CAPACITY.
SO WE WOULD NEED TO REBUILD AND ENLARGE AND CONSIDER PROGRAM CHANGES OR BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS OR POSSIBLY BOTH.
>> [INAUDIBLE]. >> AND SO THAT IS THE RECOMMENDATION WE ARE BRINGING YOU.
I WILL TAKE ANY QUESTIONS YOU HAVE OUTSIDE OF HOW DO WE PAY FOR THIS BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT BARBARA IS GONNA TALK ABOUT
I NOTICED THAT NONE OF THE DISCUSSION, AND I'M GUESSING IT
[01:30:04]
IS YET TO BE DETERMINED, BUT NONE LOOKS AT THE [INAUDIBLE].>> SAY THAT ONE MORE TIME. >> NONE LOOKS AT THE CABINET --
>> THAT'S THE PARK 188. >> THANK YOU.
THAT'S NORTH REDMOND. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> DID I SAY EAST? IMENT NORTH.
I MEANT NORTH. >> TWO QUESTIONS.
IF WE WERE TO -- OKAY. YOU ARE BRINGING A RECOMMENDATION TO THE BOARD. THANK YOU.
YOU ARE LEADING TO MY QUESTION. WOULD THIS CHANGE REQUIRE BOARD APPROVAL? DO WE HAVE ANYTHING FROM OUR
LAWYERS ON THAT? >> PROBABLY THE LAST SLIDE IS IN
REFERENCE TO THIS. >> THERE IS A TECHNICALITY WHERE I DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS A REQUIRED ACTION.
THE LANGUAGE IN THE BALLOT MEASURE STATES SOMETHING AROUND WITH BOARD APPROVAL. I THINK IT IS A BEST PRACTICE.
ANY TIME WE MAKE THIS TYPE OF A CHANGE WE THINK VERY BROADLY AROUND THE BOARD TAKING FORMAL ACTION TO REPURPOSE THESE FUNDS EVEN THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE REQUIRED IT IS A BEST PRACTICE AND THEN JUST THE COMMUNICATION TO THE COMMUNITY REALLY DESCRIBING THE RATIONAL FOR WHY THE CHANGE AND HOW DOES THIS BENEFIT OUR COMMUNITY BY USING THESE DOLLARS IN THIS KAY -- IN
I WILL SAVE MY OPINION ON THAT FOR LATER THEN.
THE SECOND QUESTION IS NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ON THE REDMOND CAMPUS. THAT WOULD NOT REPLACE THE EXISTING FACILITY. THAT WOULD JUST BE A NEW SCHOOL ON THAT CAMPUS. SO IT WOULD BE -- WITH WHOM WE HAD INITIALLY PLANNED FOR, THERE LIKELY WOULD HAVE BEEN BOUNDARY WORK WITH THAT AS WELL CORRECT? EVEN WITH THE ADDITION THERE WAS A NEED TO ADJUST PROGRAMS. AND SO YOU ARE RIGHT THAT THIS WAS AN ADDITIONAL SCHOOL ON THE SAME CAMPUS.
AND AS A REMINDER, REDMOND ELEMENTARY RECEIVED AN ADDITION IN 2012-ISH. IT WAS TO INCREASE THEIR
PERMANENT CAPACITY AS WELL. >> THAT'S MY THIRD QUESTION.
AND THE CART MAY BE GETTING A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE HORSE HERE WITH THE THIRD QUESTION, BUT I'M GOING TO.
IF WE WERE TO SHIFT AND REBUILD ROCKWELL, DO WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHETHER THE SCHOOL WOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN OPEN? I KNOW TYPICALLY WE HAVE DONE -- RIGHT, WE HAVE TYPICALLY DONE IT IN PHASES WHERE WE CAN KEEP ENOUGH OF IT OPEN.
>> OUR SUPPORT SERVICES TEAM HASN'T INDICATED THAT WE NEED TO FIND AN ALTERNATIVE SITE FOR STUDENTS.
WE TYPICALLY ARE ABLE TO BUILD AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ON CAMPUS WHILE MAINTAINING SCHOOL FUNCTIONS.
>> WE WERE ABLE TO CONSTRUCT AND OPERATE AT THE SAME TIME.
>> TWO QUESTIONS. THIS MIGHT SOUND A LITTLE BIT DUMB, BUT I'M STRUGGLING TO UNDERSTAND -- WHEN I LOOK AT THE PROJECTION DATA THAT FLO ANALYTICS PROVIDED AND LOOKING AT WHERE SCHOOLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THEIR ENROLLMENT NUMBERS, IT IS STILL -- THE GROWTH IS STILL HAPPENING.
I UNDERSTAND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION FOR ANOTHER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, BUT THE GROWTH IS STILL ANTICIPATED IN THAT AREA. SO WHY WOULD -- WHY ARE WE
MOVING THE PLAN? >> SO RIGHT NOW THE CURRENT PERMANENT CAPACITY AT REDMOND ELEMENTARY IS -- HOLD ON.
I JUST WANT TO -- OUR PERMANENT CAPACITY AT REDMOND ELEMENTARY
THEY ARE PROJECTED TO GROW TO ABOUT 750ISH.
ADDING AN ADDITIONAL SCHOOL ON THAT CAMPUS FEELS LIKE WE ARE
[01:35:04]
POSSIBLY DIRECTING THE FUNDS TO AN AREA FROM OTHER LOCATIONS TO REDMOND L AS OPPOSED TO A LONG-TERM PROJECT THAT WE WANT TO -- TO ACCOMPLISH. IN -- THIS RECOMMENDATION IS ABOUT ROCKWELL AND WE ARE ADDING THE PERMANENT CAPACITY IN NEEDS AND KNOWING THAT WE CAN SHIFT ENROLLMENT ACROSS THE COMMUNITY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE COOL SKAPS -- SCHOOL CAPACITY.RIGHT NOW THEY ARE SITTING AT 300 STUDENTS AND THEY ARE A NEIGHBOR OF REDMOND ELEMENTARY. AND SO THOSE ARE THE NATURAL SHIFTS THAT PROBABLY SHOULD OCCUR TO MAKE SURE THAT, YOU KNOW, BECAUSE RUNNING AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 300 STUDENTS, THERE IS SOME CONSEQUENCE TO THAT IN TERMS OF THE ABILITY TO STAFF IT. SO WE WOULD NEED TO ADD ENROLLMENT ANYWAY. THOSE ARE JUST SOME OF THE FACTORS THAT WE WERE THINKING ABOUT.
THIS DOESN'T NEGATE THE FACT THAT WE HAVE PLANNED -- THE TEAM PUT A GOOD PLAN TOGETHER AND ALL OF THAT WORK IS IN PLACE SHOULD
WE NEED IT FOR THE FUTURE. >> THAT LEADS TO MY NEXT QUESTION. I UNDERSTAND THE NUANCES AND THE REPERCUSSIONS OF REBOUNDRYING A LARGE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE MAP AND THERE IS CLEAR NEIGHBORING ELEMENTARY THAT ARE -- THEY ARE IN THE LOWER PROJECTED ENROLLMENT.
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT CAN SOLVE SOME ISSUES WITH POTENTIALLY RE-DOING THE AREAS. IS THERE ALTERNATIVES YOU CAN USE THE FUNDING FOR? AS YOU POINTED OUT, WE HAVE SCHOOLS BUILT IN THE 80S AND I'M SURE THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS THAT NEED TO BE FIXED AND UPDATED AND DIFFERENT CAMPUSES.
HAS THAT BEEN CONSIDERED? >> I BELIEVE YOUR QUESTION IS DID WE CONSIDER RATHER THAN BUILDING A SCHOOL DOING UPDATES AT THE SCHOOLS, MAYBE THE THREE THAT WE WERE DISCUSSING, BUT
MAYBE OTHERS AS WELL? >> SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S POSSIBLE JUST FROM A VERY EAGLE-EYED VIEW, THAT WE CAN SOLVE SOME OF THE ENROLLMENT ISSUES BY REDRAWING.
>> AS I LOOK AT A COUPLE FACTORE THINGS.
WE HAVE A CAPITAL FACILITIES LEVY THAT WE USE TO ADDRESS FACILITY NEEDS. WE ALSO KNOW THE PERMANENT CAPACITY ACROSS THE RED MOBBED -- REDMOND AREA IS OVER 100%. I THINK IT IS 97% IN 2029 AND THOSE ARE JUST NOT IDEAL CAPACITY NUMBERS.
THAT'S TRUE ACROSS THE BOARD. SO THAT'S NOT IDEAL FOR ANY OF OUR COMMUNITIES. WE ONLY HAVE RESOURCES TO BUILD A SCHOOL EVERY SO OFTEN. AND FOR ME I AM HESITANT TO TAKE, YOU KNOW, 60, 70, $80 MILLION AND REDIRECT IT FOR PROJECTS WHEN WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REBUILD A SCHOOL THAT IS IN NEED WITH THE EDUCATION -- EDUCATIONAL SPECIFICATION. DID WE CONSIDER IT AS PART OF THIS? I WOULDN'T SAY WE DID A FULL ANALYSIS. I WOULD HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WITH THOSE DOLLARS KNOWING WE COULD HAVE BUILT A SCHOOL WITH
THOSE SCHEMATICS. >> IF I MAY, I AM IN A MILE RADIUS OF BOTH OF THESE SCHOOLS, THERE IS A BIG PIECE THAT, YOU'RE RIGHT, THEY CAN BE REBOUNDRIED.
THEY HAVE DONE IT SEVERAL TIMES. ROCKWELL AND WE HAVE FIVE
[01:40:05]
SCHOOLS CURRENTLY NOT REBUILT WITHIN OUR 50 PLUS SCHOOLS HAVING THIS OPPORTUNITY WHERE WE COULD REBUILD ONE OF THOSE SCHOOLS IS A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE AND BEING ABLE TO ADDRESS AN ONGOING PROBLEM FOR A LONGTIME.I THINK THIS OPPORTUNITY BECAUSE YOU HAVE THE POTENTIAL DECLINING ENROLLMENT AND NOW YOU WILL HAVE TO REBOUNDARY THIS THROUGH.
YOU WILL HAVE TO BE PULLING KIDS UP FROM THE REDMOND COMMUNITY AND THEY ARE UP THE HILL AND BARTON HAS SPACE.
WOULD -- I WOULD SAY IT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE WHAT WE CAN DO WITH THOSE DOLLARS. THE WHOLE IDEA OF ADDING ANOTHER ELEMENTARY, WE HAVE SPOKEN CONSISTENTLY OF TRYING TO KEEP OUR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS BELOW 600.
SO EVEN HAVING A CAMPUS WITH TWO ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS WE ARE BIGGER THAN THAT. WE ARE ACCEPTING THAT REALITY TO A CERTAIN EX-- EXTENT. AND NOW WE HAVE AN OPTION NOT TO HAVE TO DO THAT. SO I VIEW THIS AS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS BEING ABLE TO DO SOME LONG-TERM GOALS.
THIS HAS BEEN ON THE DOCKET SINCE 2006.
WE HAVE BEEN WORKING TO REPLACE ALL OF OUR SCHOOLS.
SO I THINK IT'S TIME. >> MY COMMENT IS NOT REPURPOSING DOLLARS AND FIXING WINDOW PANES AND ALL OF THOSE THINGS.
THAT'S NOT WHAT I WAS SUGGESTING.
IT WAS -- AND MAYBE THIS IS WHERE MY LOGIC WAS FLAWED.
I WAS THINKING AN UPDATE FOR RENOVATION TO AN EXISTING SCHOOL WOULD BE CHEAPER THAN BUILDING AN ENTIRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.
I SAY I AM POTENTIALLY WRONG ON THIS BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT CONSTRUCTION COSTS, SCHOOLS.
>> IF I CAN ASK A QUESTION ABOUT THE PRIOR, YOU WOULD HAVE TO DO A NEW STUDY PRIOR TO A TOTAL REBUILD.
THAT'S A REQUIREMENT. IT MEANS IF YOU COULD MODERNIZE AND BRING UP THE SPACE WHAT IS THE COST OF THAT IN RELATION TO BUILDING NEW. IN THE PAST WHAT HAS BEEN FOUND IS THAT IT IS CHEAPER TO BUILD NEW THAN IT IS TO RE RE-- REMODEL. SOME OF THE AUTOBON WAS ONE OF THE FIRST IN 2006 AND MAYBE THAT IS THE WRONG YEAR.
WHEN IT WAS REBUILT THE CHALLENGES AND PIECES THAT CAME WITH IT IS PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE TIME YOU CAN USE THE NEW CODE THAT'S THERE AND THE REQUIREMENTS THAT HAVE TO HAPPEN. SO A STUDY DOES HAVE TO HAPPEN
PRIOR. >> ROCKWELL, ALCOT AND SMITH ARE ALL THE -- AND THE CALIFORNIA SCHOOL AS WELL WHERE THEIR HALLWAYS ARE OUTSIDE. IT IS A DIFFERENT LAYOUT AND TO BRING IT TO THE EDUCATIONAL SPECIFICATION WOULD BE
DIFFICULT. >> AND JUST TO MAKE SURE WE GOT IT IN A NUTSHELL, THE RED MOBBED AREA, EVEN IF YOU REBOUND THE EXISTING PROPERTIES OR NEED ANOTHER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YOU CAN GET ROCKWELL BIGGER AND IT NEEDS TO BE REBUILT IN THE NOT
TOO DISTANT FUTURE. >> CORRECT.
AND WE'LL STILL HAVE TO USE PORTABLES.
YOU REBUILD AND ENLARGE ROCKWELL AND YOU'LL STILL BE REQUIRED TO USE PORTABLES TO GET OUR SCHOOLS IN THE 80 TO 89% CAPACITY.
>> ARE WE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE FINANCE PART?
>> WE ARE GOING FORWARD. >> AOEUPLSZ.
I'M SORRY. >> I THINK IT WAS KIND OF ANSWERED. MY ENTIRE QUESTION WAS -- WE JUST HAD A PRESENTATION TALKING ABOUT HOW REDMOND AND SAMMAMISH ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A DECREASE IN ENROLLMENT AND ACROSS ELEMENTARY AND MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOLS, SO I WAS WONDERING WITH THIS -- WOULD THIS ADDITION TO ROCKWELL BE SUSTAINABLE IN TERMS OF WOULD IT -- IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DECREASE IN ENROLLMENT AT ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS ACROSS THE NEXT 10 YEARS FROM THIS CHANGE, WOULD THIS STILL WORK OUT OR WILL THERE NEED TO BE FURTHER CHANGES TO NOT ONLY THE REDMOND AREA TO LIKE THE WEST SIDE AS
>> ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT THE CHART THAT THEY SHOWED, THE MIDDLE SCHOOL AND THE HIGH SCHOOL KIND OF WERE THIS VERY
[01:45:02]
GRADUAL DECLINE. THE ELEMENTARY IS MORE OF A U SHAPE. IN THE LATER YEARS WE START TO SEE LARGER CLASS OFS. THEY ARE LARGER KINDERGARTEN CLASSES. IF THE TREND CONTINUES LIKE IT IS, THEN THAT PROJECTION FOR ELEMENTARY WILL CONTINUE TO EITHER MAINTAIN STABILITY OR SLIGHTLY GROW AND MAKE SURE THE MIDDLE SCHOOLS AND THE HIGH SCHOOLS IN THE FUTURE SIX, SEVEN, EIGHT YEARS WOULD ACTUALLY START KIND OF THAT GRADUAL INCREASE AS WELL. THE REDMOND AREA IS PROJECTED TO SLIGHTLY GROW DURING THE 10-YEAR PERIOD.WE HAD TWO LONG-TERM FACILITY TASK FORCES.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THEY SAID IS WHEN YOU BUILD, BUILD LARGER THAN YOU NEED. THAT IS IN RESPONSE TO MANY OF THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS WERE BUILT FOR LIKE 420 TO 450 STUDENTS. AND WE ARE JUST FINDING THAT THOSE WEREN'T BIG ENOUGH. ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I ASKED FROM A SUSTAINABILITY STANDPOINT WAS CAN WE ACTUALLY MONITOR OUR CLASSROOMS TO THE POINT WE CAN MAKE SURE OUR UTILITY COSTS ARE CONTROLLED EVEN IF WE HAVE A LARGER SCHOOL? AND ULTIMATELY THE RESPONSE WAS YES.
THE SYSTEMS IN PLACE ARE TO THE CLASSROOM LEVEL WHERE IT IS CLASSROOM TO CLASSROOM AND THERE IS MONITORING AND THINGS LIKE THAT THAT ACTUALLY TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT IN TERMS OF CO2 LEVELS AND ALL SORTS OF THINGS IN TERMS OF THOSE COSTS.
MY CONCERN WAS YOU BUILD A LARGE SCHOOL AND YOU DON'T NEED IT ALL UP FRONT, THEN WHAT HAPPENS TO YOUR UTILITY COSTS? WE CAN CONTROL FOR THAT AS WELL. THOSE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS
THAT WE TALKED ABOUT AS WELL. >> THANK YOU.
>> I AM GOING TO MOVE ON ABOUT HOW CAN WE PAY FOR THIS AND WHAT FUNDS ARE REMAINING THAT CAN SUPPORT NOT ONLY THIS CONSTRUCTION PROJECT, BUT OTHER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS.
THIS IS GOOD EVENING A -- THIS IS AGAIN A SLIDE YOU SAW IN DECEMBER. OUR CONSTRUCTION -- OUR 2022 CONSTRUCTION LEVY WAS FOR $295 MILLION THAT WE WILL RECEIVE THE NEXT SIX YEARS. IN ADDITION TO THAT WE RECEIVED THE ONGOING IMPACT FEES FOR THE THREE OR FOUR JURISDICTIONS, RED LAND, KIRKLAND, SAMMAMISH AND KING COUNTY.
AND IN DECEMBER WE RECEIVED $8 MILLION THAT WE CANDIED INDICATE TO THESE PROJECTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED ANOTHER $4 MILLION N -- IN IMPACT FEES.
WE HAVE 13 MILLION WE CANDIED INDICATE TO -- CAN DEDICATE TO THE PROJECTS AND THAT'S REFLECTED ON HERE AND THEN JUST A REMINDER THAT THE CASH COMES TO US EVERY SIX YEARS WE STILL NEED TO DO AN LGO BOND SALE UNLESS WE DELAY PROJECTS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FURTHER OUT YEARS.
WE WILL DO A SALE TO FRONT FUND THE DOLLARS AND SO THIS CHART TALKS ABOUT THE BUDGET FOR EACH OF OUR PROJECTS.
AGAIN, SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SLIDE BRIAN SHOWED YOU.
OUR MIDDLE SCHOOL ADDITIONS, THE ORIGINAL BUDGET, $41 MILLION, WE ARE USING -- WE BUILT INTO THE $295 MILLION LEVY.
CONTIN GIN SEE -- WE ARE USING 9.2 OF THE CONTINGENCY FOR A TOTAL OF 50.6. THE NEW ELEMENTARY ON THE REDMOND ELEMENTARY CAMPUS WAS ORIGINALLY 57.7 MILLION.
WE -- THE INITIAL PLANNING WAS ABOUT 5 MILLION WAS NEEDED OUT OF THE CONTINGENCY CONSTRUCTION ES ASK YOU -- ESCALATION.
AND THEN FURTHER DOWN THE HIGH SCHOOL CAPACITY EASTSIDE AND THE WEST SIDE IS 59.2 WERE NOT FAR ALONG ENOUGH TO KNOW HOW MUCH -- WHAT CONSTRUCTION ESCALATION WE WILL NEED.
WHEN WE REMOVE THE NEW ELEMENTARY ON THE REDMOND CAMPUS AND WE REPLACE THAT WITH ROCKWELL, THERE IS A OVERALL HIGHER COST. SO WE CAN USE 11.5 MILLION OF THE CONTINGENCY BUDGET FOR THAT TO AN ESTIMATED PROJECT BUDGET OF 80 MILLION VERSUS THE 62.7 FOR THE ORIGINAL REDMOND ELEMENTARY PLAN. OVERALL THAT CREATES A TOTAL
[01:50:02]
COST OF $306,000,000-POINT VERSUS 295.SO AN 11 MILLION NEED. AND SO THIS IS A SLIDE THAT YOU SAW IN DECEMBER. WE HAVE REMAINING FUNDS FROM THE 2016 BOND PROGRAM THAT WE PRIMARILY USE FOR PROPERTY PURCHASES THAT HAVE TAKEN PLACE. WE HAVE ABOUT $4 MILLION LEFT FROM OUR BOND PROGRAM. WE HAVE $17 MILLION FROM THE 2019 CONSTRUCTION LEVY PROGRAM. AS I SHARED WE HAVE 12.6 MILLION IN IMPACT FEES FOR THE 2022 CONSTRUCTION CAPITAL CONSTRUCTION LEVY. OUT OF THE 34 MILLION WE ARE RESERVING 1.5 MILLION FOR PARKING ACQUISITION AND THEN 5.6 MILLION FOR THE LGO COST. AND SO THAT LEAVES A BALANCE OF 27 MILLION. AND THEN IF WE RESERVE -- AND SO THE 11.2 MILLION NEED FOR THE REBUILD AND ENLARGE PROJECT -- AND THERE IS A PARENTHESIS OUT OF PLACE.
THAT WOULD LEAVE 15.8 MILLION. THAT'S KIND OF THE FINANCING.
AND AGAIN, WE DO KNOW THAT WE PROBABLY WILL COLLECT ANOTHER COUPLE MILLION IN IMPACT FEES FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR, AND MORE NEXT YEAR. IT CAN HELP OFFSET THESE PROJECTS. SO THAT IS THE FINANCING PIECE OF THAT. JUST MAKE SURE -- AND THEN DO
YOU WANT TO TALK TO THIS SLIDE? >> SURE.
IF THE BOARD WANTS TO MOVE FORWARD WITH CONSIDERING THIS IN A FORMAL MEETING, WE WOULD USE THE SAME PATTERN FOR ANY KIND-SCALE DECISIONS WHERE WE BRING A RECOMMENDATION TO THE BOARD FOR A FORMAL RECOMMENDATION AT MEETING 1 AND A SUBSEQUENT MEETING WOULD BRING IT BACK FOR FORMAL ACTION ON THAT RECOMMENDATION GIVING A TWO TO THREE-WEEK DELAY BETWEEN RECEIVING THAT FORMAL RECOMMENDATION AND TAKING ACTION AND DEVELOP A COMMUNICATION PLAN FOR COMMUNITY AND STAFF AND THEN SUPPORT SERVICES WOULD DETERMINE DELIVERY METHOD AND DESIGNING TEAM FOR THAT AS WELL. THAT IS OUR PRESENTATION AND
RECOMMENDATION THIS EVENING. >> SO SEEING THAT WE HAVE THREE MINUTES, WHAT I WANTED TO PUT OUT IS IF THERE ARE ANY OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS OR THINGS THAT PEOPLE HAVE IN REGARDS TO THIS, TO BE ABLE TO PUT THOSE FORWARD IN AN EMAIL POTENTIALLY SO IT CAN BE ANSWERED BETWEEN THAT AND POSSIBLY AT THE BOARD MEETING AS WELL DURING THE FORMAL PRESENTATION.
IS THERE ANYTHING PRESSING RIGHT NOW THAT SOMEBODY NEEDS -- I JUST KNOW WE NEED TO GET IN THERE.
ANY PRESSING QUESTION THAT NEEDS DISCUSSION AT THIS MOMENT? OKAY. WITH THAT WE WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY AS IT COMES FORWARD. ARE WE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT IT DOES COME FORWARD TO THE BOARD AT WHATEVER TIME THEY NEED TO
BRING IT FORWARD? >> [INAUDIBLE].
>> OKAY. AND THEN IT WILL BE A FIRST READING AND THEN TO A SECOND. ALL RIGHT.
WITH THAT AND SEEING NO OTHER QUESTIONS WE ARE GOING TO ADJOURN THIS MEETING SO WE CAN BEGIN OUR OTHER MEETING IN THE NEXT ROOM.
* This transcript was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.